For metal prices, we believe that the continued recovery of the global economy in 2010 will continue to provide fundamental support for metal demand, but the financial premium factor is expected to peak in the middle of the year. Prior to this, the weak dollar pattern will continue, the global liquidity is still maintained, and the above-mentioned financial premium factors will tend to weaken in the second half of the year. Therefore, in the first half of the year, we continued to bullish futures metal varieties (copper, aluminum, and zinc), which have continued to grow in fundamental demand and enjoy financial premiums. In the second half of the year, we are optimistic about the varieties whose prices are less affected by the financial premium and which are closely related to the real economy. , rare earth, tungsten).
In the first half of the year, we are optimistic about copper based on China's import rigidity, which is highly concentrated in global supply and accounts for 42.1% of total demand. The downstream real estate industry operating rate is still expected to be higher next year and the continued growth of the automotive industry makes us believe that the demand for electrolytic aluminum will continue to improve, although we still have 15% to 20% excess capacity, but we expect aluminum prices to rise steadily in the future. . The expected restocking of galvanized sheets in the West next year and the demand for galvanized sheets from the continued growth of China's auto production will continue to support zinc demand in 2010. We expect zinc prices to rise steadily in 2010.
In the second half of the year, based on the expectation of global interest rate hikes and the possibility of a possible depreciation of the US dollar, we expect the financial premium support factor for bulk metal commodity prices to weaken, but the global economy is expected to continue to recover, so we expect the second half of the year to be affected by the financial premium. Small but closely related to the real economy will perform better. Continued growth in steel production in 2010 is expected to continue to support demand for molybdenum. China's later stage is expected to strengthen the integration of superior resources, increase pricing power, and continuous improvement of downstream demand, we believe that rare earth and tungsten are also worthy of attention.
For the trend of industry profit changes, we believe that the industry will continue to focus on resource-based enterprises next year, but the profit growth rate will be slowed down; cost control capability is the core competitiveness of smelting enterprises, and lower-cost smelting enterprises will enjoy The maintenance of profit margins brought by strong downstream demand; for processing enterprises, product differentiation is a form of competitiveness. At present, the lack of more prominent global competitiveness makes it less likely to have a sharp increase in performance.
In the first half of the year, we are optimistic about copper based on China's import rigidity, which is highly concentrated in global supply and accounts for 42.1% of total demand. The downstream real estate industry operating rate is still expected to be higher next year and the continued growth of the automotive industry makes us believe that the demand for electrolytic aluminum will continue to improve, although we still have 15% to 20% excess capacity, but we expect aluminum prices to rise steadily in the future. . The expected restocking of galvanized sheets in the West next year and the demand for galvanized sheets from the continued growth of China's auto production will continue to support zinc demand in 2010. We expect zinc prices to rise steadily in 2010.
In the second half of the year, based on the expectation of global interest rate hikes and the possibility of a possible depreciation of the US dollar, we expect the financial premium support factor for bulk metal commodity prices to weaken, but the global economy is expected to continue to recover, so we expect the second half of the year to be affected by the financial premium. Small but closely related to the real economy will perform better. Continued growth in steel production in 2010 is expected to continue to support demand for molybdenum. China's later stage is expected to strengthen the integration of superior resources, increase pricing power, and continuous improvement of downstream demand, we believe that rare earth and tungsten are also worthy of attention.
For the trend of industry profit changes, we believe that the industry will continue to focus on resource-based enterprises next year, but the profit growth rate will be slowed down; cost control capability is the core competitiveness of smelting enterprises, and lower-cost smelting enterprises will enjoy The maintenance of profit margins brought by strong downstream demand; for processing enterprises, product differentiation is a form of competitiveness. At present, the lack of more prominent global competitiveness makes it less likely to have a sharp increase in performance.
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