Foreword:
Compared with hydropower and wind power, photovoltaic power generation started late, but the development speed is amazing.
Data show that as of the end of 2018, the country's photovoltaic power generation installed capacity reached 174 million kilowatts, an increase of 44.26 million kilowatts from the previous year, an increase of 34%. Among them, the centralized power station was 123.84 million kilowatts, an increase of 23.3 million kilowatts compared with the previous year, an increase of 23%; the distributed power station was 50.61 million kilowatts, an increase of 20.96 million kilowatts from the previous year, an increase of 71%.
Recently sought by the capital, nearly a thousand companies have poured into the photovoltaic market, showing the scene of “hundred flowersâ€. However, under the influence of the "531 New Deal" last year, the photovoltaic industry began to enter an accelerated reshuffle period, and many enterprises closed down. However, this also means the arrival of the era of cheap Internet.
In recent years, in order to seek a bigger market, domestic PV companies have chosen to “go to the seaâ€, and the overseas market has begun to become a new competitive competition for the photovoltaic industry.
Polysilicon prices continue to fall
The photovoltaic industry is increasingly becoming an explosive industry after the international IT and microelectronics industry.
Simply put, the photovoltaic industry chain includes silicon materials, slicing, battery chips, battery components, and application systems. Among them, the upstream is the silicon material and the silicon wafer link; the middle travel is the battery piece and the battery component link; the downstream is the application system link.
From a global perspective, the number of enterprises involved in each link of the industrial chain has increased substantially, and the industrial chain of the photovoltaic market has a pyramid structure.
From the perspective of industrial characteristics, the upstream is similar to the resource type, and silicon materials, especially high-purity silicon materials, have the highest gross profit margin.
In recent years, with the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry, the price of polysilicon has risen in the next step of the explosive growth of terminal demand, and at the same time stimulated the expansion of polysilicon enterprises and the release of new capacity.
However, since January 2018, the terminal market demand has suddenly cooled down, and the price of silicon wafers caused by the market share of single polysilicon wafers has been lowered. As a result, wafer profit has shrunk sharply, and the silicon material has fallen.
Throughout 2018, polysilicon prices experienced three bottomings.
Among them, after entering the second down cycle in mid-June, 13 companies were shut down and repaired in just one week. The maximum capacity involved in maintenance exceeded 45.9%. The price low in mid-July was 8.04-8.78 million yuan/ton. The average annual price is around 104,000 yuan / ton.
Affected by this, at present, almost all domestic polysilicon enterprises are facing losses, and the barely traded is only to maintain cash flow.
According to the latest data, the price range of various grades of silicon materials in this week ranged from 7.7 to 78,000 yuan/ton, which continued to decline, but the decline was narrowed.
The reason is that in the case of a serious imbalance between supply and demand in the market, with the gradual release of new capacity, the concentration of 10,000-ton enterprises has increased recently.
The data shows that domestic polysilicon production in the first quarter of 2019 was 80,500 tons, an increase of 12.3%. The output in March was about 28,900 tons, an increase of 10.7% from the previous month and an increase of 20.4% from the same period of last year. Among them, the output of 9 10,000-ton enterprises totaled 26,300 tons, accounting for 91.0% of the total domestic output.
Undoubtedly, this has largely alleviated the supply pressure of polysilicon enterprises. The chances of silicon material prices bottoming out are great, but the strength and duration of the actual market price rebound still depends on the release of downstream terminal demand.
Industry chain midstream market is broad
In the middle of the PV industry chain, batteries and components are the main source of profit.
Among them, solar cells mainly include compound thin film solar cells, silicon thin film solar cells and crystalline silicon solar cells. Among them, the compound thin film solar cell market is promising. In terms of silicon thin film solar cells and crystalline silicon solar cells, market share has obvious advantages due to mature technology.
Compared to solar cells, the component production technology is slightly lower.
Due to the low investment in component manufacturing, short construction period, low technology and capital threshold, and the closest to the market, component production has attracted a large number of enterprises to enter, which is one of the fastest growing links in the photovoltaic industry chain.
According to statistics, global component shipments reached 95 GW in 2018, down 8% from 2017. The SMSL Silicon-Based Component Alliance, composed of the five major integrated plants (Jingke, Tianhe, Jingao, Artes, Hanwha) and the two leading wafer manufacturers (GCL, Longji Leye), still plays a pivotal role.
Although the overall production of components in 2018 decreased slightly, the total shipments of the top ten factories increased to 65GW, accounting for nearly 70% of the total global shipments. It can be said that the market share in the future is still the largest. situation.
For the power station business downstream of the industrial chain, it is more similar to a fixed-income utility industry, and before the photovoltaic power generation can not be priced online, it is mainly to eat government subsidies.
However, in recent years, the subsidy gap in the photovoltaic industry has increased.
As of the end of 2017, China's renewable energy subsidy total amounted to 100 billion yuan, of which the photovoltaic subsidy gap is nearly 50 billion yuan, directly accounting for nearly half of the share.
By 2018, the introduction of the "531 New Deal" has once again accelerated the subsidy of the photovoltaic industry, and the days when photovoltaic companies rely on subsidies have never returned.
"531 New Deal" stepped on the sudden brake
Compared with the "531 New Deal", the photovoltaic industry is booming, and the industry after the New Deal can be described as sorrowful.
On May 31, 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (Development and Reform Energy [2018] No. 823, hereinafter referred to as Circular 823).
The "531 New Deal" is simply a matter of three aspects: limiting scale, reducing subsidies, and increasing competition.
In the view of some industry insiders, the New Deal is a turning point in the photovoltaic industry from scale to high quality and from barbaric growth to rationality. It is also an inevitable requirement for the development of the photovoltaic industry to enter a new stage, and plays an important role in achieving sustainable and healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.
But in a short period of time, the "531 New Deal" is still quite damaging to the photovoltaic industry. Affected by this, a large number of PV companies fell, even for some of the leading companies with strong strength, most of the performance has fallen sharply.
Especially in the third quarterly report of 2018, whether it is profit growth or large losses, most companies listed the “531†New Deal in the warnings and reasons for the significant changes in net profit compared with the previous year. In addition, a series of explanations such as “decreased EPC revenue year-on-yearâ€, “substantial decline in component pricesâ€, “reduced sales volume, and reduced revenue†have also appeared in the company’s third quarter report.
Take Xinyi Solar (00968-HK) as an example. According to the results announcement, as of December 31, 2018, Xinyi Solar achieved a revenue of HK$7.672 billion, a decrease of 19.5% year-on-year. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the 62.2% decline in EPC business. The company did not receive EPC orders for poverty alleviation projects during the period. At the same time, the company's gross profit was HK$2.96 billion, down 13.05% year-on-year; the profit attributable to equity holders of the company was HK$1.863 billion, down 20.1% year-on-year.
Affordable internet is coming soon
   However, it is worthy of recognition that the introduction of the "531 New Deal" is also coming to the era of affordable Internet access.
On January 9, 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Actively Promoting Non-subsidized Budgets for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation" (Development and Reform Energy [2019] No. 19), requiring "actively promoting wind power and photovoltaic power generation." Construction of affordable Internet projects and low-cost Internet projects."
According to the preliminary judgment of the Notice, in the next two years, the development of affordable Internet projects (the price of on-grid electricity is lower than the benchmark coal-fired electricity price) will become a new development model. The on-grid tariff of this model is significantly lower than the current benchmark price, with an average reduction of 0.15 yuan / kWh (estimated value of each province), which is expected to be about 0.1 yuan / kWh lower than the current bidding model of the provinces.
Therefore, the arrival of the low-cost era means that PV companies can only hedge the adverse effects of lower electricity prices by increasing scientific research investment and technological innovation, from improving power generation efficiency and reducing industry chain costs.
Among them, the cost reduction means that the cost of each link of the whole industry chain is reduced, and the cost reduction of each link can directly reduce the single-watt investment cost of the power station; improving efficiency means improving the conversion efficiency of the battery piece through the improvement of the process, thereby bringing components. The power increase will indirectly reduce the single-watt investment cost of the power station.
For the battery, based on 20% as a benchmark, each conversion efficiency of 1% is equivalent to a 5% increase in component output power, which is 5% higher than the power station revenue (output power * electricity price * available hours). In the process, the cost of the power station is reduced by about 5% when the internal rate of return is constant.
For the component, with a conversion efficiency of 20%, the conversion efficiency per 1% increase is about 15W of the component of 60 pieces, that is, the component power is increased by 15W, and the power station cost is reduced by about 5%.
Photovoltaic giant expands monocrystalline silicon
At present, although the parity Internet policy has brought a lot of pressure on PV companies, due to the favorable release of a number of policies to promote the healthy development of the PV industry at the two sessions, the leading financing and expansion of the PV industry continues.
Especially in the field of monocrystalline silicon, the market share of monocrystalline cells has further increased due to the rapid growth of overseas photovoltaic installations.
Some market participants expect that global PV installations will exceed 125 GW in 2019, and the penetration rate of single crystal technology is expected to exceed 50%, and is expected to continue to grow. As of the end of 2018, the leading company Longji has a production capacity of approximately 28 GW and the Central Shares capacity is approximately 25 GW.
Recently, Longji shares announced that it plans to invest 6 billion yuan to add 23GW of monocrystalline silicon production capacity.
Subsequently, Zhonghuan also announced an investment of 9 billion yuan to build the world's largest high-efficiency solar monocrystalline silicon production base with an annual production capacity of 25 GW.
The announcement shows that the company and the Hohhot Municipal People's Government have jointly reached a cooperation agreement on the construction of the “Central 5th 25GW Monocrystalline Silicon Project†in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and signed a letter of intent for cooperation.
The “25 GW 25MW Single Crystal Silicon Project in Central†has a total investment of about 9 billion yuan. It is planned to start construction in mid-April 2019. The trial production will be realized within the year. It is expected to be fully put into operation in October 2021. After completion, the “Central Industrial Park†monocrystalline silicon will be completed. The annual production capacity will exceed 50GW, accounting for nearly 50% of the global monocrystalline silicon capacity, making it the world's largest single crystal silicon production base for high-efficiency solar energy.
Overseas market demand broke out
Affected by demand, overseas markets are becoming a new competitive point for Chinese PV companies.
Recently, PVInfoLink, the authoritative analysis organization of the photovoltaic industry, released the “Top 10 PV Module Suppliers List in the Indian Marketâ€. The list shows that as of the first nine months of 2018, China's PV company Dongfang Risheng (300118) ranked among the top three in terms of total component shipments of 717 megawatts (MW), and the top ten component suppliers included days. Heguang Energy, Artes and other first-line enterprises.
According to the data, the global PV installation volume is about 103.3 GW in 2018, China continues to lead with 44.26 GW, and the US has 11.36 GW. The top five are India (9.3 GW) and Japan (6.2 GW). , Australia (3.8 GW). The number of countries entering the GW-class market has increased to 15.
In general, PV companies want to gain a foothold in overseas markets, and capturing market share is critical. However, it is not easy to develop and deepen overseas markets, subject to the grid structure, photovoltaic standards and policies of different countries.
Even so, due to the growth of overseas market demand and huge market potential, PV companies are still looking at the “blue ocean†of overseas markets.
Take the Indian market as an example
India is a country with extremely uneven power supply and demand. In the past 10 years, power supply has been insufficient, and the power supply and demand situation is more severe.
According to estimates by relevant departments, India's power gap in 2015 peaked at 2.6%. By 2022, the Indian power gap may increase to 5.6%.
At present, about 300 million people in India's nearly 1.3 billion people are unable to use electricity normally, accounting for about 23% of their total population.
From a geographical perspective, India's lighting conditions are clearly better than China.
Because India is located in the tropics and subtropics, due to its proximity to the equator, most of the country has about 300 sunny days all year round, with sufficient sunshine hours, annual solar radiation of up to 1700-2500 kWh/kWp, and daily solar radiation of 4.0-7.0. kWh/m2.
It is also because of its abundant solar energy resources and market demand that India has become the world's fifth largest PV installed capacity market and the second largest new installed market.
According to statistics, in 2012, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in India was 1.4GW, which was 1.9GW in 2013. In 2017, it reached the highest peak of 9.73GW, and in 2018 it dropped slightly to 9GW. It is estimated that India's renewable energy installed capacity will increase by 15.86GW in 2019.
It is worth noting that the risks in the Indian PV market cannot be ignored.
According to foreign media reports, India is considering increasing restrictions on imported photovoltaic cells and components, including measures to impose a 7.5% tariff on imported PV modules.
to sum up:
Overall, the photovoltaic industry is still experiencing tremendous growth potential after experiencing ups and downs.
With the implementation of industrial and commercial roofs, photovoltaic poverty alleviation, and “photovoltaic+†projects, the application of photovoltaic market will show a wide-ranging and diversified trend, which will produce photovoltaic products that meet various needs. The development of photovoltaic industry is going global. Intelligent and financial.
At present, the main problem of the photovoltaic industry is the serious overcapacity and the excessive dependence of the market on external demand, which has led to difficulties in the general operation of enterprises.
Therefore, in addition to accelerating the research and development of new technologies, PV companies need to strengthen the construction of power grid infrastructure and improve the power output of power stations away from urban areas. On the other hand, according to the power generation characteristics of different clean energy sources, strengthen the complementarity between multiple clean energy sources, and improve the clean energy absorption capacity and adjustment capability of the system.
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