Strong upward momentum in steel prices

In the seventh week of 2011 (2.7-2.11), Lange Steel's (LGMI) composite price index reached 194.5 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.6%, and an increase of 27.39% over the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long product price index was 220.5 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.68%, an increase of 29.51% over the same period of last year; LGMI sheet price index was 163.1 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.47%, an increase of 24.07% over the same period last year.

From the Lange Steel Price Index, it can be seen that in the 7th week of 2011 (2.7-2.11), the domestic steel market as a whole showed a slight increase. The increase in construction steel products was relatively large, while the increase in sheet products was relatively small. The overall market price was lower than that of the previous week. Rose slightly. Long product varieties rose slightly, among which rebar increased significantly, while high-line gains were smaller; while sheet metal prices rose slightly, among which hot coil prices rose the most, medium plate prices rose in the middle, and cold plate prices rose the least The price of galvanized sheet basically remained stable. From a regional perspective, the price increase in the east China region was the largest, while that in the southwest, south China, central China, and northwest regions increased significantly, while that in the northern and northeastern regions increased less.

In the seventh week of 2011 (2.7-2.11), the national average price of domestic steel (long products and sheet) market was 6,127 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 98 yuan from the end of January 2011 (6029 yuan).

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, it is expected that the overall domestic steel market price will increase slightly next week (2011.2.14-2.18). Lange Steel's comprehensive price index is expected to fluctuate around 196 points, the average price of steel is about 6190 yuan, and the average fluctuation is about 60 yuan, of which long products and sheet metal products are likely to pull up slightly.

1. Market prices of major steel products in the country continued to rise steadily

According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, as of February 11, 2011, the prices of 12 major steel products in the top 10 major cities in China have increased slightly. Among them: Φ6.5mm high line average price of 4892 yuan, up 59 yuan before the Spring Festival; Φ25mm secondary rebar average price 4895 yuan, 54 yuan more than before the holiday; 5.5mm hot rolled coil average price of 4961 yuan, than the festival Before the rise of 93 yuan; 1.0mm cold rolled coil average price of 5714 yuan, up 61 yuan before the holiday; 20mm plate price 5013 yuan, up 84 yuan before the holiday; 4 inch welded pipe price of 4928 yuan, 17 yuan higher than before the holiday Yuan; 108*4.5 seamless tube price of 6070 yuan, up 145 yuan before the holiday; 25 # I-beam price of 4741 yuan, 34 yuan more than before the holiday; domestic 5 # angle steel price of 4752 yuan, 54 yuan more than before the holiday 25# channel steel price 4718 yuan, 44 yuan higher than before the holiday; 1mm galvanized sheet price 5632 yuan, 5 yuan higher than before the holiday; 0.47mm Cai Tuban price 6625 yuan, flat with the pre-holiday.

According to the price data of 17 types of 31 steel products monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center market, the price of major steel products in the 7th week of 2011 (2.7-2.11) rose slightly, compared with the 5th week of 2011. The number of rising varieties increased, the number of flats decreased, and the number of falling varieties decreased. Among them, there was no decline in varieties, which was a decrease of 3 species from last week; 9 species were flat and 6 species decreased compared with the previous week; 22 species rose 9 species more than last week (see Table 1 for details). The domestic steel raw material market price rose steadily or slightly, the scrap market price remained stable, the coke market price rose slightly by 20 yuan, the billet market price rose by 60 yuan, and the iron ore market price rose by 40 yuan.

2. The ex-factory prices of most long steel and sheet products of leading steel mills continue to increase

As the current overall steel market shows a slight increase in volatility, the major steel mills continue to increase the prices of long products and sheet products, and the factory prices of long products and sheet products have been raised. This week Liuzhou Iron and Steel, Panzhihua Iron and Steel, Kunming Steel and Laiwu Iron and Steel and other leading steel companies introduced the ex-factory price policy for major steel products.

Long products varieties:

On the 9th, Liuzhou Steel's rebar was raised by RMB 60;

On the 10th, Panzhihua Iron & Steel raised 80 yuan;

Kunming Steel raised its construction materials by RMB 50 on the 10th;

Plate species:

On the 9th, Liu Gang raised 80 yuan in hot rolled coil, 60 yuan in profile, 60 yuan in medium plate, and 60 yuan in cold rolled plate.

On the 10th, Laiwu Steel Co.

At present, the prices of mainstream varieties have risen slightly, which has led to a decrease in the prices of inverted market prices and ex-factory prices in the 7th week of 2011 (2.7-2.11). The ex-factory price of 8 steel varieties is higher than the market price (see Table 2 for details). Last week, there were four kinds of reductions. The increase in market prices was greater than the increase in settlement prices of steel mills, which resulted in a slight decrease in the extent of upside down. At the same time, the market prices of channel steel and angle steel were lower than the cost price.

3. It is expected that the price of mainstream steel products will increase slightly in the eighth week of 2011 (2011.2.14-2.18)

At present, the market price of steel products is still rising, and the support for raw material costs remains unabated. At the same time, the domestic steel stocks re-high, making the post-holiday inventory pressure reappear, due to the current transaction is not satisfactory, steel prices are in the idle stage, there is a certain callback risk, but due to inflation expectations and cost increases, steel prices will fluctuate The situation will likely set a new high during the year.

Steel ** market maintains upward momentum

In the 7th week of 2011 (2.7-2.11), the trend of the 1110 contract after the Spring Festival was more forceful. First of all, we focused on 10 contracts instead of 05 contracts. The 10 contracts have completely replaced the 05 contract to become the main contract, starting from the position view. Can find that the post-holiday 10 contract positions to increase positions is relatively large, three trading days a total of 136,000 hands Masukura, positions and volume increased at the same time, the funds for the thread of enthusiasm still unabated.

From the price point of view, as of the end of the trading day on Friday, the weekly settlement price of the 10 contract is 5,200, compared with 5099 in the previous week. The overall price space has moved up again, and once again reached a new high of 5230. According to the current situation, it cannot be considered easily If the price is too high, it is considered to be the formation of the top. From the graphical point of view, the upward trend of the overall pattern is obvious, and the upward channel is obvious. Each of the moving averages is diverging upwards. The Yang line of the Yin line staggers and continues to increase, and there is no sign of forming a head here.

The domestic steel market will continue to rise steadily

From the market survey, it is expected that next week (2011.2.14-2.18) the trend of the mainstream varieties of the domestic steel market will be slightly pulled up, long products and sheet species may be slightly pulled up; while the raw material market prices will rise steadily or slightly, including scrap Market prices for iron ore, coke and billet will increase slightly.

4, concerned about the recent factors affecting steel prices

Raw material supply:

Indian iron ore ** impact global pricing system

On January 29, India, the third largest iron ore supply country in the world, officially launched iron ore ** varieties. The Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) and the Indian Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) jointly launched an ore mine (IOF) that uses the ore index TSI as the settlement price. As the world's first iron ore grade, the birth of IOF means further financialization and short-term pricing of the iron ore market.

The iron ore ** launched by India will be delivered on a monthly basis, with 62% iron ore at the standard grade as the delivery target and 100 dry tons of iron ore as the trading unit, with an initial margin of 8%. The basic unit for the delivery of ** delivery by the MCX is 20,000 dry tons, but the ICEX delivery unit is 5,000 dry tons. The settlement price used by ICEX is the TSI index, which tracks the 62% CIF price of Tianjin iron ore.

Russia intends to levy tax on iron ore and steel exports

On February 1, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development had already proposed to issue export taxes on iron ore and steel. The iron ore tax rate is tentatively set at 30%, flat products including hot and cold-rolled coils are 10%, or fluctuate according to international prices. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development also proposed that as an alternative measure, the iron ore production tax may be raised from the current 4.8% to 8.8%.

Macroeconomics:

China's manufacturing purchasing managers index was 52.9% in January

In January 2011, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. From the sub-indexes, the overall performance has declined. Compared with the previous month, the purchase volume index, import index, purchase price index, and raw materials inventory index have increased, of which the import index and purchase price index have increased by more than 2 percentage points; the remaining indices have all declined in varying degrees. Among them, the production index, new export order index, backlog order index, and employee index fell sharply by more than 2 percentage points, and the backlog index was particularly significant, falling by 4.2 percentage points.

Among the 20 industries this month, 14 industries led by the ** product industry, beverage manufacturing industry and general equipment manufacturing industry were higher than 50%, and the industry led by more than 60%. There are less than 50% of 6 industries in the communications equipment computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, metal products, chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industries. From the perspective of product type, raw materials and energy companies are slightly lower than 50%, and intermediate goods, consumer goods, and manufacturing finished goods are higher than 50%. Following the December of last year, the PMI continued to fall in January, indicating that the trend of economic stabilization in the near future is not yet clear, and there is a potential for further correction.

The People's Bank of China decides to increase the benchmark interest rate of financial institutions

The People's Bank of China decided to increase the benchmark interest rate of financial institutions since February 9, 2011. The one-year benchmark deposit interest rates of financial institutions were raised by 0.25 percentage point respectively, and the benchmark interest rates for other grades were adjusted accordingly.

Industry News:

Crude steel output fell slightly in mid-January

According to the data released by the China Iron and Steel Association on January 30, the crude steel production of member enterprises in January was 14.885 million tons, the national estimate was 16.9544 million tons, and the national crude steel output was 1.695 million tons in the current period, down 98,000 tons.

The data also shows that in the first half of January, 34.173 million tons of crude steel were produced nationwide, and the daily output was 1.709 million tons. The daily output of pig iron and steel was 1.592 million tons and 2.261 million tons respectively. According to another ten-year report, the steel stocks of key enterprises at the end of the year were 7.722 million tons, an increase of 2.1% from the end of the previous year.

My steel products are again subject to U.S. trade survey

On February 7, local time, the U.S. International Trade Commission finalized the decision to impose a 'double reverse' (anti-dumping and countervailing) tariff on China's oil pipelines and drills imported into the United States, with a maximum anti-dumping duty of 430% and anti-dumping measures of 18.18%. The subsidy tax, which is also the fifth trade remedy survey launched by the United States in the two months since China’s steel products were encountered.

The U.S. International Trade Commission concluded that China’s exports of such products to the United States caused ** and material damage to its domestic industries. According to relevant laws, after the US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission have all made affirmative decisions on the same case, the US Department of Commerce will issue a taxation order to the customs and the 'double reverse' tariff will come into effect.

The last-term rebar **1110 contract closed down 0.12% on the 11th

On the 11th of February, the main 1110 contract for rebar was slightly opened higher at 5,190 yuan/ton on the 11th, slightly upside to 5200, and the first-line shock adjusted again. At 9:37, many heads went up again, breaking the 5,200 line again, and The high remained for a period of time. After being under pressure, it immediately fell back. After a short period of adjustment, the bulls again organized an upside move and closed at noon. After the opening in the afternoon, prices oscillated and fell to the 5,200 line. As more gains occurred on the 10th, profit-taking pressured the plate, and then broke through the 5,200 line after consolidating. Then it oscillated and dipped. It eventually dipped to RMB 5,167/ton. The closing price fell by RMB 6/t from the settlement price of the previous trading day (Thursday). The highest price touched RMB 5,230/ton on that day and the lowest price fell to RMB 5,163/ton. Volume was 466,606 lots, holdings of 480,486 lots, minus 20,614 lots.

At present, the strong prices of iron ore, coking coal, and billet have relatively strong support for steel prices in terms of cost, and the market expects the spring season for steel purchases and the expectation that the supply and demand of construction steel will improve. In addition, during the policy blank period after the interest rate increase policy was established, the role of long funds in entering the market in the inflation environment was also relatively obvious. Therefore, the price of steel products may continue to be relatively strong in the short term.

Downstream demand:

China's new shipbuilding investment ranks first in the world

In 2010, China remained the largest investor in the world's new shipbuilding, reaching 11 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 106% year-on-year. According to Clackson data, the investment in new shipbuilding by Greek shipowners increased by 284% to 10.8 billion U.S. dollars last year, ranking second behind China.

Until the end of 2010, total investment for all types of ships reached 71.7 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 136.7% over the same period last year. In December last year, Handysize bulk carriers invested US$1.7 billion and accounted for 39.2% of total investment in December. However, according to Clackson data, the input of oil tankers is still low, only 400 million U.S. dollars, setting the lowest data in October. In March 2010, oil tanker investment dropped by 63% in the same quarter, and VLCC rebounded in December, reaching US$200 million, but it was down 79.5% from the previous quarter.