The recent aluminum market has been undermined by the persistently weak copper market. Instead, the nickel and zinc futures in the metal market, which have renewed their impact on highs, have given the aluminum market more support. On Monday night, LME’s 3-month aluminum price rose on the back of strong nickel and zinc price increases. It eventually gained 30 US dollars to finish at 2,620 US dollars per ton. On Tuesday, the aluminum market in Shanghai was slightly inferior, and it was always oscillated in a narrow range. The main contract of the 0612 contract fell by 50 yuan to close at 1,970 yuan/ton.
On Monday, the aluminum prices and zinc prices in the LME market rose by the same amount, pulling the entire metal market gains. Although the nickel price hit a record high in pre-trade transactions, the bright star in the session is still zinc. Aluminum has changed from the previous period to the current rise. Unfortunately, the lack of market stamina, aluminum prices finished lower and closed at US$2,620/ton, although it was 30 US dollars higher than last Friday's closing price, but it was well below the daily high of US$2,665/ton, indicating that the resistance above it is relatively large. The volume of transactions at the time of rushing in the market has not been significantly magnified, indicating that it is difficult for aluminum prices to form an effective upside.
The aluminum bullion's retreat has caused the Shanghai aluminum market bulls to be disappointed. Therefore, although LME aluminum prices rose a bit last night, they not only did not drive Shanghai aluminum prices to rise, but also caused aluminum prices to open lower and lower throughout the day. Most of the contracts have experienced degrees of decline from Monday to Monday. In contrast to yesterday’s trend, aluminum prices have risen in afternoon trading today, partly to get rid of the weak atmosphere in the morning.
At the close of trading today, the month's contract for the month of 0610 closed at 21,350 yuan/ton, -210 yuan; the main contract for 6,012 yen closed at 19,900 yuan/ton, -50 yuan, and the remaining contracts fell by 10 to 70 yuan. The total market volume today is 151,158 lots, with 2,29986 total positions, and 1968 Masukura hands.
At present, during the LME annual meeting, most traders gather in London. The market lacks sufficient liquidity. Therefore, the rise and fall of metal prices during this period should not be considered too heavy, and should not be used in recent days as the main basis for judging the trend of the medium-term market. Wait-and-see is a better trading strategy at this stage.
Today's lower domestic futures prices are also affected by the weakening of the spot market. Traders' channels generally reflect the large shipments of post-holiday aluminum, and the spot price was close to 22,000 yuan/ton, making the buyer unresponsive. As a result, spot prices in Guangdong and Tianjin have declined significantly, and shipments have been difficult. However, I believe that post-holiday consumption should be stronger than before the holiday. This is due to the seasonal influence and the dual impact of the short-term stimulus impact of the aluminum export tax rebate policy. Under the support of actual demand, the market can maintain the balance of the previous period. Once the aluminum price of LME rises, Shanghai Aluminum will continue to rise. The spot price can also be maintained at RMB 21,000-22,000/ton in the short term. The medium-term trend needs to observe the production of China's primary aluminum in September and October to see if the increase is more than expected.
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