PTA rebound power has limited resistance

According to the monitoring of business club prices, the price of domestic PTA spot market rebounded in the most recent month.

As of January 12, the PTA spot market price was 8,800 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 4.14% from 8,450 yuan/ton on the 12th of last month. At present, major domestic PTA production enterprises, such as Xianglu Petrochemical, Far Eastern Petrochemical, Yisheng Petrochemical in December settlement price of 8,700 yuan / ton, January listing price of 8,800 yuan / ton.

The main reasons for the significant rebound in the spot price of PTA this round were the favorable support of upstream costs and the follow-up of rigid downstream stocking demand.

The price of PX continued to rise, and the Asian PX market price was 1589.5 to 1590.5 USD/ton (CFR China Taiwan/Mainland China). The demand for stocking before the Spring Festival in the downstream polyester market was released in a concentrated manner, and inventory conditions were generally low. Some manufacturers were in zero inventory, and the quotations were basically small, which was about 50-100 yuan/ton.

However, the market outlook to see PTA spot market upward resistance, one of the reasons is excess capacity, operating rate decreased.

In 2011, Asia's PTA capacity was 43.7 million tons. According to ICIS data, Asia's PTA production capacity will increase by 26% in 2012, and all new production capacity will be concentrated in China. This year, Asian PTA producers will face pressure from overcapacity. The current PTA plant operating rate is around 80% to 85%, and it may further decline in the future.

The second reason is that the stocking is nearing completion and the demand is shrinking.

Although the price of upstream PX continues to increase, the cost of PTA has increased. However, near the Spring Festival, domestic textile enterprises have entered the stage of centralized production and holiday leave, and the pre-holiday stocking demand has entered the final stage. On the 11th, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom has dropped to 43%, and the production and sales rate of polyester factories has gradually declined.

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