On January 12, Hong Kong stocks Poly GCL Energy (03800, HK) rose 13%, while US stocks Wuxi Suntech also rose 27% on the 12th. The share price movement of the two major PV faucets was mainly affected by the rumors that polysilicon producers are brewing price increases. In addition, the recent introduction of more policies, also laid a strong shot for the dying photovoltaic industry.
Photovoltaic industry enters the freezing point
The photovoltaic industry in the field of new energy has once been the field of many hot pursuits. It has also created Shi Zhengrong, the chairman of Wuxi Suntech, to become the richest man in China. In the past, all stocks with the concepts of “photovoltaic†and “silicon†were all sought after by investors, and without exception, they became the hottest big bulls. However, all of this was changed in 2011. In 2011, due to the multi-country policy of the PV industry, the investment was overheated, resulting in overcapacity and product prices plummeting. So far, the domestic industry's profit margin has fallen from the previous profiteering of 139% to the current negative (the market price has been lower than the cost). In the past year, Wuxi Suntech, the leading domestic photovoltaic company, fell from US$10 to US$1, and was once exposed to market failure by market rumors. Subsequently, more than 50 solar energy companies have fallen, and one-third of the industry's enterprises are in a semi-discontinued state. For the photovoltaic industry, it is not the winter, but the freezing point.
With the arrival of 2012, the road ahead for China's photovoltaic industry is also bumpy. The European market is shrinking, the US double-reverse investigation, and the overcapacity of production. The various unfavorable factors are superimposed. It is really about the "photovoltaic" discoloration.
PV stocks move to increase prices
The so-called photovoltaic is a new type of power generation system that uses the photovoltaic effect of solar cell semiconductor materials to directly convert solar radiation energy into electrical energy. At present, crystalline silicon materials (including polycrystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon) are the most important photovoltaic materials, and their market share is over 90%, and it is still the mainstream material of solar cells for a long period of time in the future. Therefore, crystalline silicon As the main upstream resource of the photovoltaic industry, its price changes often indicate the rise and fall of the downstream PV industry.
After experiencing three consecutive quarters of decline in polysilicon prices, this week finally rebounded. According to the PV Insights sample, PV grade polysilicon prices rose by 4.45% this week, maintaining an upward trend for two consecutive weeks, and the lowest price rebounded to 30$/Kg. According to the latest Energy Trend sample, the lowest price of polysilicon remained at 20$/Kg, but the average price also rose by 3.68%. Polysilicon prices have maintained a trend of stabilizing and stabilizing for two weeks. Recently, the peripheral market or Taiwan region has also rumored that silicon materials companies are brewing prices, and the price of silicon materials reported has gradually increased.
As the price rebounds, the stock prices of a number of polysilicon producers are also supported by bargain-hunting funds, and the performance is very strong. Polysilicon's leading company, Poly GCL Energy (03800, HK), rose 13% on January 12, and the US solar cell manufacturer leader, Wuxi Suntech also rose 27% on the 12th.
In the A-share market, Leshan Power (9.05, -0.03, -0.33%) (600644), CSG A (9.63, -0.13, -1.33%) (000012), and Sichuan Investment Energy (11.73, -0.08, -0.68) A series of polysilicon concept stocks such as %) (600674) and Tianwei Baobian (11.52, -0.05, -0.43%) (600550) were also sought after by funds, and rose accordingly.
In this phenomenon, some institutions believe that the rise in polysilicon reflects the degree of inventory digestion and the partial extrusion of ineffective capacity. The short-term recovery rebound of polysilicon prices does not have a long-term trend, but reflects that the industry is gradually picking up.
Restrict foreign investment to eliminate production capacity
The decline of an industry, along with the policy side, often has corresponding actions to save, such as industry consolidation or increased access thresholds to reduce market supply. With the arrival of 2012, the photovoltaic industry has also seen the dawn of a glimmer of policy.
Previously, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Guidance Catalogue for Foreign Investment Industries (Revised in 2011)â€, which removed the items such as polysilicon and coal chemical industry from the list of encouraged foreign investment industries, and also used thin film batteries, solar collectors, and ultra-high Power graphite electric grade, 200mm single crystal silicon and polishing sheet production, solar air conditioning, solar drying equipment, solar cells, solar power stations have joined the industry to encourage foreign investment. The new guidance catalogue will be implemented from January 30 next year.
On December 14, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of enterprises that met the “Plastic Industry Access Conditionsâ€. 20 polysilicon enterprises such as LDK, Ledian Tianwei and Jiangsu Zhongneng became the first batch of short-listed enterprises. The industry access policy is gradually being implemented.
It can be seen that the main purpose of the implementation of the repeated policy is to eliminate the backward production capacity of crystalline silicon and restrict foreign investment, reduce the supply of the industry to boost the price of the products; on the other hand, actively introduce foreign investment in the downstream industry of crystalline silicon to increase demand.
Haitong Securities (microblogging) (7.89, 0.04, 0.51%) believes that there are three major factors in the current PV industry, which together drive the polysilicon price to rebound slightly:
(1) The company survives the fittest and withdraws from backward production capacity. According to reports, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced in the list of 20 companies that meet the "polysilicon access conditions", in fact, more than half of the polysilicon has been discontinued, the industry pattern is being re-established, the current production capacity of the top four polysilicon manufacturers can meet the entire photovoltaic The downstream installed capacity of the industry, the future development trend of the polysilicon industry may be the oligopoly situation;
(2) The price avalanche prompts the critical point of the parity Internet to accelerate and approach, and stimulates the future increase of downstream installed capacity. Opening up the downstream will help stabilize the price of the industry. The lowest price of polysilicon in the international market will reach 20$/Kg, while the domestic price has fallen below the cost price of many companies by 20-30 yuan/ton. This price is for the downstream power station. It can be said that it is a very good time. The upstream price drop has greatly reduced the installed cost. In fact, grid-connected power generation is the ultimate goal of the solar industry. The rationalization of prices is also an inevitable trend of industry development.
(3) Domestic start-up to make up for the gap in export sluggish, domestic PV installed capacity ushered in the fastest growing season. It is expected that the domestic installed capacity in 2011 will exceed the previously expected 1.5GW to reach 1.8GW or even 2GW, which is a high probability event. The domestic market will explode in the next 2-3 years, which will make up for the export sector caused by the decline in the growth rate of the European market. The gap.
Financial subsidy installation cost is halved
In addition to the first two measures to control supply and increase demand, the "Notice on Organizing and Implementing the 2012 Solar Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration" issued by the General Office of the Ministry of Finance and the General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is also a major positive for the industry. According to the contents of the Notice, the state will further implement the application level of solar photovoltaic building, and implement policy subsidies for the photoelectric integration projects such as building materials and buildings that are closely integrated with the building. The subsidy standard is tentatively set at 9 yuan/watt, which is generally combined with the building. The form of utilization, the subsidy standard is tentatively set at 7.5 yuan / watt.
For this policy, Great Wall Securities (Weibo) believes that this notice can be seen as a concrete implementation of renewable energy building planning last year, in line with the development of distributed energy, and to avoid the problem of large-scale photovoltaic power generation. An effective way. From the experience of foreign countries, the photovoltaic powers represented by Germany and Italy have gradually encouraged the installation of small-scale photovoltaic projects in the revision of their photovoltaic policies. The main body of this is the photovoltaic building integration project. From the perspective of subsidies, although the unit price of small photovoltaic systems is slightly higher than that of large power plants, as the price of photovoltaic products continues to decline, the subsidy has reached more than half of the installation cost. After calculation, the cost of electricity is less than 6 If some local subsidies are used, it is possible to achieve a cheaper Internet access on the user side. “Although there is still a game between BIPV users and the grid at this stage, we are very optimistic about the development of BIPV in the long run. It is recommended to focus on the relevant targets including the PVPV system design of diamond glass (7.350, -0.04, -0.54%) (300093 ), anti-glass and double-glass components leading Amarton (25.80, 0.15, 0.58%) (002623) and Hong Kong stocks Xingye Solar (00750), etc., "Great Wall Securities said.
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