Summary of the first three quarters, domestic steel prices showed "up - down - up" and "spoon" shaped trend, hit rock bottom in the first half, the second half began to eat a big red dates, but unfortunately some way strangle hold, hard The following throat, for the upcoming October, that is the last one of the year...
In the first three quarters of this year, domestic steel prices showed a “spoon†trend of “up-down-upâ€. In the first half of the year, they fell into the bottom of the valley. In the second half of the year, they began to eat a big red date. Unfortunately, some cards were half-necked and difficult to Swallow, for the upcoming October, which is the beginning of the last quarter of the year, how will China's steel market change, may wish to explore one or two. Review: Steel prices in the first three quarters showed a "spoon" trend
The lack of "golden three silver four" made the price of hopeful steel fall to the end of June after the Spring Festival, and some steel grades fell more than 700 yuan / ton; then the implementation of a series of "micro-stimulus, lower limit" policy measures In the high temperature summer, the steel market has rebounded against the market, so that the steel market has realized what is called “unexpected†surprise. The steel price that has fallen for several months ushered in “first rise and then stabilize†in July and August. The joy of accident. With the rebound of steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has rebounded slightly since July. In the off-season demand, production enthusiasm is relatively high. It is once again full of illusions about the “Golden September and Silver 10†that made everyone suffer last year. Unfortunately, Although China's economy has further warmed up, the expected "Golden Nine" peak season is once again shy and will not be out. Although the history of "Waterloo" has not been encountered, the market is still not hurt.
Crude steel production hit record highs
In the first three quarters of this year, the production enthusiasm of steel mills has remained at a high level, with an average daily output of over 2.1 million tons; especially in the early period when steel prices continued to fall, steel mills had a strange circle of “more losses and more productionâ€. .
According to the statistics of China Steel Association, the highest average daily crude steel output in the first three quarters of this year occurred in early May, reaching 2,912,900 tons, and the relative low was 1,090,800 tons. The time was in late January, with a difference of nearly 300,000. Ton. As of the end of August, based on the data of the China Steel Association, the daily average crude steel output was 2.0877 million tons, much higher than the average production last year.
The market entered the steel stock market for more than 6 months.
Steel mills continue to produce high yields. By the middle and late March, China’s steel social inventories have reached the highest level since the statistics, reaching 22,345,200 tons. Only then have they entered the long-term destocking period of more than six months until At the beginning of mid-September, the steel stocks fell back to the normal level of 14.61 million tons.
After entering the end of March, as the downstream industry began to resume production, China's steel products began to enter the new destocking stage after completing the inventory reconstruction; after a 26-week inventory decline, the cumulative decline in mid-September 39 About %, the national key varieties of steel inventories compared with the same period last year, the destocking speed is significantly stronger than the same period last year, a decrease of 985,500 tons.
Raw material cost first strong and then weak shock adjustment
In the first three quarters, the market for major steel raw materials such as imported ore and steel billets maintained a wide range of fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, due to the expected increase in steel demand in China, the price of imported ore continued to rebound; 62% of the Australian mine price rose by a known high of 159 US dollars/ton in mid-February, and then dragged down raw materials such as imported ore because of the continuous decline in steel prices. The price is also weak and difficult to change. It fell to a low of 110 US dollars/ton at the end of June. However, in the subsequent summer steel price rebound, the imported mines rebounded again. Although they continued to fluctuate after entering September, they are now reported at 140. At the level of USD/ton, relatively speaking, the cost support of spot steel prices is still acceptable.
Forecast analysis: the steel market rebounded moderately in the fourth quarter
Although September has not yet ended, from the current trend of the steel market, the possibility of good is not great, and the market of Jinjiu has become inevitable. In the upcoming fourth quarter, we believe that the “first weak, strong, narrow wave†operation is a high probability event. The author believes that the following changes are worth considering.
Steel mill production enthusiasm does not reduce steel supply and demand contradictions weak
According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national crude steel output in January-August 2013 was 521.84 million tons, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year; of which, the crude steel output in August was 62.28 million tons, and the average daily output was 2.13 million tons. After a lapse of three months, it will rise again and the reaction steel mill will increase its production enthusiasm.
Since March this year, China's steel output has remained at a high level of more than 2 million tons, indicating that steel companies have no willingness to cut production. At the beginning of the two sessions in the country, the state has mentioned new heights in the control of air pollution. It has issued three outdated production capacity elimination lists, and the overall plan for the elimination of backward production capacity in the country is in full swing; especially the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan issued in mid-September. ", has put forward detailed governance standards. This year, the country's determination to environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, and elimination of backward production capacity is increasing; but for now, the actual effect is very limited, and the impact on steel production in the later period will continue. Observed. However, it is indisputable that although the steel production has always remained at a high level, China's steel social inventories are much lower than the same period of last year. In response to this year, China's steel consumption capacity has gradually increased since the summer, and there are still many new construction projects in the later period. In addition, various steady growth measures are still being implemented. The overall demand for steel products is relatively stable and there will be no major changes. On the whole, supply pressure is not large.
Traffic, real estate investment to force downstream steel demand is expected to be better
Although there has been no good performance in the spot market since the beginning of this year, the high crude steel output in the upstream has been much lower than the steel inventory level in the same period last year. The most intuitive response is that China's terminal steel demand is very considerable.
From the perspective of downstream industries, although the shipbuilding and home appliances industries are still relatively low, the railway construction investment is accelerating, the shantytown transformation is accelerated, the urban infrastructure investment construction is strengthened, the real estate investment is improved in the second half of the year, and the automobile/machine manufacturing industry is very eye-catching. . In the middle of the year, in order to maintain the economic growth downline, and in order to accelerate the digestion of excess capacity in the steel and other industries, the state announced a substantial strengthening of the implementation of a series of major micro-stimulus projects such as railway construction in the central and western regions, directly driving the steel prices in July and August this year. The rebound against the market has made a miracle in the off-season. Overall, China's steel demand is very stable, and there is no need to worry in the next fourth quarter.
Raw materials such as imported ore will continue to fall
Since the beginning of this year, at the beginning of the year, the import mine has risen to a maximum of nearly US$160/ton, and then after a long period of backwardness, it has risen again in July. By mid-to-late September, the price of 62% Australian mines is around US$135~142/ The ton is up and down, relatively strong. Obviously, the current trend of major raw materials such as imported ore is facing a directional choice, and there is no specific trend.
Although the current Chinese demand has a strong support for iron ore prices, it is important to note that the global iron ore supply growth rate is significantly stronger than the growth rate of China's iron ore consumption. According to the news, in the fourth quarter of this year, the overseas production capacity of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and FMG began to be released. The figures show that the output of new iron ore in major overseas mines is around 60 million tons, and the supply pressure will increase significantly in the later period. On the other hand, China's environmental governance is becoming more and more strict, and high-pollution industries such as steel have even been formulated with detailed governance requirements. Therefore, although the enthusiasm of steel mills is not diminished, if the policies are strictly enforced, the domestic steel enterprises will The demand for iron ore will definitely decline. Therefore, there is a large downside in the prices of major raw materials such as imported ore during the year.
Opinion: Through the above analysis of the three aspects of steel supply, demand and raw material cost, we can roughly judge that the steel market situation in the fourth quarter will be stronger than the first half of the year, but whether it can reach the height of the third quarter, it also needs to be observed. Specific trends in future funding and new urbanization. Based on comprehensive judgment, we believe that after the National Day, the domestic steel market will be weaker and stronger, and the possibility of band-type operation will be greater.
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