"The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether has reached 5,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is 120 yuan higher than the end of August, creating a new high in the year, and the sales are relatively smooth. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will be strongly supported by various factors in the later period. Difficult to change, the price will still be high or continue to rise.†September 28, Shaanxi Suihua Group deputy chief economist Xue San province gladly told reporters.
At the scene, the reporter also saw that there was a continuous stream of tanker trucks coming to the company to pick up the goods, and the vehicles that came to work on the preconditions even lined up in long lines.
“The alcohol ether market, which has always been a steadfast since the beginning of the year, has recently risen thanks to three favorable factors,†said Xue Sanxing.
The first is that raw material prices increase costs. Affected by the consolidation of coal companies in several large coal-producing provinces, this year's coal production growth has slowed down significantly, and the nation’s coal supply and demand have been balanced. Recently, as the Daqin Line was overhauled, the supply of coal to East China and South China was reduced, resulting in tight supply of electricity coal in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions and rising prices. The coal mine flooding accident of the China Coal Group also triggered the inspection and rectification of coal mine safety throughout the country, reducing the country’s coal production. In addition, the southeastern provinces in order to learn from the intense winter coal lessons in recent years and take precautions to purchase coal reserves and coal for chemical industry in advance, increased coal purchases, boosted coal prices, and pit prices generally rose by more than 15 yuan from the beginning of September. Some even exceed 50 yuan. Calculated by the consumption of 2.5 tons of raw coal per ton of methanol, the recent increase in coal prices increased the cost of methanol by 40 to 130 yuan, and the full cost of methanol was generally raised to more than 2,500 yuan, supporting the rise in methanol prices. Methanol is the raw material of dimethyl ether, and the price of methanol has risen, which has increased the production cost of dimethyl ether and promoted the simultaneous rise in the price of dimethyl ether.
The second is the reduction of supply and tight supply. On the one hand, since May, domestic fertilizer prices have suddenly risen. Although they have fallen somewhat recently, they are still at a relatively high level year-on-year, making the fertilizer sector profitable. Since approximately 47% of China's methanol production capacity is derived from the production of alcoholic fertilizers, when the fertilizer products are profitable and the methanol price is low, companies will naturally increase the load of fertilizer plants and reduce the load on methanol plants and reduce the production of methanol in order to maximize the benefits. On the other hand, for the independent alcohol ether companies, most of them choose to conduct major overhauls in the months from August to September before the weather turns cold, and the devices are overhauled, which also reduces the production of alcohol ethers and changes the pattern of oversupply in the alcohol ether market. Boosted its price.
The third is strong downstream demand, which stimulated the increase in the amount of alcohol ethers. From September to November, it is a season of traditional production and sales of man-made boards, acetic acid and MTBE. Recently, the wood-based panel industry has experienced prosperous seasons, drought-induced power cuts and other sufferings, and finally it has prosperously produced and sold. The operating rate of enterprises has steadily increased, stimulating the volume and price of formaldehyde in the market to increase and increasing the demand for methanol. Acetic acid industry in the downstream demand for vinyl acetate, ethyl acetate expanded, driven by rising prices, the operating rate increased significantly, expanding the demand for methanol in this area. The continuing popularity of the MTBE market has increased the demand for methanol in this sector by more than 20% over the same period of previous years.
For the later trend of alcohol ether, Xue Sanxian expressed cautious optimism.
On the one hand, with the advent of winter, the supply of coal will increase and the price of coal will continue to rise. It is not even possible to rule out the possibility of a coal shortage at the end of the year, which will curb the release of coal-head methanol plant capacity. In addition, China's natural gas methanol production capacity accounts for about 27% of the total methanol production capacity. According to the usual practice, when the demand for civil natural gas increases in winter, the amount of chemical gas supply will inevitably decrease. Due to the strong growth in demand for civil gas this year, the gap between natural gas supply and demand is even greater, and the possibility of the “gas shortage†coming ahead of schedule will increase, and the impact may be wider. This will seriously restrict the release of gas methanol production capacity in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. Reduce gas head methanol production.
On the other hand, demand for methanol will continue to increase significantly in the later period. In addition to strong demand in the traditional methanol field such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and MTBE, the demand for methanol fuel will be significantly increased. At present, the low proportion of methanol gasoline in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Shanghai has been promoted smoothly, and the pilot project of M85 high-rate methanol gasoline has been promoted in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Shanghai in an orderly manner. As domestic refined oil prices remain high, the difference between methanol gasoline and pure gasoline has been widened, spurring strong growth in demand for methanol-gasoline. In addition, due to the firmness of LPG prices, restaurants and some boiler users in Harbin, Shenyang, Tianjin and other places have switched to alcohol ether as fuel, and their user base is expanding. These will support the high price of alcohol ethers or the upward movement of shocks.
The reporter analyzed the price trend of dimethyl ether this year and found that the technical level also supports the rise in the price of dimethyl ether.
Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the price of dimethyl ether has shown a "W" trend. Take Shaanxi as an example. At the beginning of the year, following the booming market at the end of last year, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether rocketed to 4,500 yuan. Subsequently, the supply fell below the demand pressure, and from late March to early April, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether reached around 3,800 yuan, which was lower than the cost of many enterprises, which forced the relevant enterprises to cut production and production, and eased the oversupply of dimethyl ether in the market. The pressure caused its price to stabilize and slowly climbed. By mid-to-late May, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether climbed to more than 4,000 yuan respectively, and there was a gross profit of 200-300 yuan, which stimulated companies that had stopped production in the early stages to resume work. However, the oversupply repressed the price of dimethyl ether, and even in the first half of July, it even hit the bottom 3850 yuan. In August, due to the power cut in the south, the price of DME recovered and stabilized, until recently due to tight supply and strength. The current price of dimethyl ether is exactly in the half-waist position on the right side of “Wâ€, indicating that there is still a possibility of further rise in the later period. However, taking into account the overall serious excess of domestic dimethyl ether production capacity, once a large number of devices due to profitable and focused open, it will change the current tight supply and demand balance pattern, suppress the market development in depth. Therefore, although the price of DME may still rise in the later period, there is little room for it.
At the scene, the reporter also saw that there was a continuous stream of tanker trucks coming to the company to pick up the goods, and the vehicles that came to work on the preconditions even lined up in long lines.
“The alcohol ether market, which has always been a steadfast since the beginning of the year, has recently risen thanks to three favorable factors,†said Xue Sanxing.
The first is that raw material prices increase costs. Affected by the consolidation of coal companies in several large coal-producing provinces, this year's coal production growth has slowed down significantly, and the nation’s coal supply and demand have been balanced. Recently, as the Daqin Line was overhauled, the supply of coal to East China and South China was reduced, resulting in tight supply of electricity coal in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions and rising prices. The coal mine flooding accident of the China Coal Group also triggered the inspection and rectification of coal mine safety throughout the country, reducing the country’s coal production. In addition, the southeastern provinces in order to learn from the intense winter coal lessons in recent years and take precautions to purchase coal reserves and coal for chemical industry in advance, increased coal purchases, boosted coal prices, and pit prices generally rose by more than 15 yuan from the beginning of September. Some even exceed 50 yuan. Calculated by the consumption of 2.5 tons of raw coal per ton of methanol, the recent increase in coal prices increased the cost of methanol by 40 to 130 yuan, and the full cost of methanol was generally raised to more than 2,500 yuan, supporting the rise in methanol prices. Methanol is the raw material of dimethyl ether, and the price of methanol has risen, which has increased the production cost of dimethyl ether and promoted the simultaneous rise in the price of dimethyl ether.
The second is the reduction of supply and tight supply. On the one hand, since May, domestic fertilizer prices have suddenly risen. Although they have fallen somewhat recently, they are still at a relatively high level year-on-year, making the fertilizer sector profitable. Since approximately 47% of China's methanol production capacity is derived from the production of alcoholic fertilizers, when the fertilizer products are profitable and the methanol price is low, companies will naturally increase the load of fertilizer plants and reduce the load on methanol plants and reduce the production of methanol in order to maximize the benefits. On the other hand, for the independent alcohol ether companies, most of them choose to conduct major overhauls in the months from August to September before the weather turns cold, and the devices are overhauled, which also reduces the production of alcohol ethers and changes the pattern of oversupply in the alcohol ether market. Boosted its price.
The third is strong downstream demand, which stimulated the increase in the amount of alcohol ethers. From September to November, it is a season of traditional production and sales of man-made boards, acetic acid and MTBE. Recently, the wood-based panel industry has experienced prosperous seasons, drought-induced power cuts and other sufferings, and finally it has prosperously produced and sold. The operating rate of enterprises has steadily increased, stimulating the volume and price of formaldehyde in the market to increase and increasing the demand for methanol. Acetic acid industry in the downstream demand for vinyl acetate, ethyl acetate expanded, driven by rising prices, the operating rate increased significantly, expanding the demand for methanol in this area. The continuing popularity of the MTBE market has increased the demand for methanol in this sector by more than 20% over the same period of previous years.
For the later trend of alcohol ether, Xue Sanxian expressed cautious optimism.
On the one hand, with the advent of winter, the supply of coal will increase and the price of coal will continue to rise. It is not even possible to rule out the possibility of a coal shortage at the end of the year, which will curb the release of coal-head methanol plant capacity. In addition, China's natural gas methanol production capacity accounts for about 27% of the total methanol production capacity. According to the usual practice, when the demand for civil natural gas increases in winter, the amount of chemical gas supply will inevitably decrease. Due to the strong growth in demand for civil gas this year, the gap between natural gas supply and demand is even greater, and the possibility of the “gas shortage†coming ahead of schedule will increase, and the impact may be wider. This will seriously restrict the release of gas methanol production capacity in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. Reduce gas head methanol production.
On the other hand, demand for methanol will continue to increase significantly in the later period. In addition to strong demand in the traditional methanol field such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and MTBE, the demand for methanol fuel will be significantly increased. At present, the low proportion of methanol gasoline in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Shanghai has been promoted smoothly, and the pilot project of M85 high-rate methanol gasoline has been promoted in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Shanghai in an orderly manner. As domestic refined oil prices remain high, the difference between methanol gasoline and pure gasoline has been widened, spurring strong growth in demand for methanol-gasoline. In addition, due to the firmness of LPG prices, restaurants and some boiler users in Harbin, Shenyang, Tianjin and other places have switched to alcohol ether as fuel, and their user base is expanding. These will support the high price of alcohol ethers or the upward movement of shocks.
The reporter analyzed the price trend of dimethyl ether this year and found that the technical level also supports the rise in the price of dimethyl ether.
Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the price of dimethyl ether has shown a "W" trend. Take Shaanxi as an example. At the beginning of the year, following the booming market at the end of last year, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether rocketed to 4,500 yuan. Subsequently, the supply fell below the demand pressure, and from late March to early April, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether reached around 3,800 yuan, which was lower than the cost of many enterprises, which forced the relevant enterprises to cut production and production, and eased the oversupply of dimethyl ether in the market. The pressure caused its price to stabilize and slowly climbed. By mid-to-late May, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether climbed to more than 4,000 yuan respectively, and there was a gross profit of 200-300 yuan, which stimulated companies that had stopped production in the early stages to resume work. However, the oversupply repressed the price of dimethyl ether, and even in the first half of July, it even hit the bottom 3850 yuan. In August, due to the power cut in the south, the price of DME recovered and stabilized, until recently due to tight supply and strength. The current price of dimethyl ether is exactly in the half-waist position on the right side of “Wâ€, indicating that there is still a possibility of further rise in the later period. However, taking into account the overall serious excess of domestic dimethyl ether production capacity, once a large number of devices due to profitable and focused open, it will change the current tight supply and demand balance pattern, suppress the market development in depth. Therefore, although the price of DME may still rise in the later period, there is little room for it.
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