On February 18-19, the competent department held a series of photovoltaic policy symposiums, and discussed with the industry associations, experts and enterprises the 2019 photovoltaic industry policy, and concluded that “the new household photovoltaic projects in the second half of 2018 entered 2019. Preliminary conclusions such as the “subsidy catalogueâ€, “co-operative bidding for industrial and commercial power stations and ground power stationsâ€, and “the price of the upper limit of bidding is 0.01 yuan/kWh per quarterâ€.
Some insiders commented that this is probably the most market-conscious PV policy document over the years. The competent authorities have shown the greatest sincerity and drafted the fairest competition rules. At the same time, for household PV, which has an increasing anxiety index, the Energy Bureau has also given the most favorable solution for users.
But any policy is difficult to satisfy everyone. In fact, from the author's understanding, PV practitioners are arguing over the latest policies. The contradictions are mainly concentrated on the following points:
How to divide the subsidy of 3 billion yuan?
There have been rumors that the household PV indicator for 2019 is 3GW. According to the utilization hours of 1100h and the total electricity subsidy of 0.18 yuan / kWh, the annual subsidy is 594 million yuan. Considering that household PV has a one-month buffer period, and the actual utilization hours of household PV projects in some key markets (such as Shandong and Hebei) are higher, the actual subsidy demand is about 600-700 million yuan. In other words, the subsidies reserved for ground power stations (including front-runners) and industrial and commercial distributed projects are between 2 and 2 billion yuan.
In order to "avoid the ups and downs of the industry", the new scale of this year's ground power station and distributed (excluding poverty alleviation) should not be less than 35GW. Also, according to the utilization hours of 1100h, the actual power subsidy should not exceed 0.062 yuan/kWh.
The standard of 6.2 cents for electricity subsidies is already higher than the predictions of some research institutions and the media, and should be satisfactory to most people. If the average subsidy intensity derived from the auction is really this number, for the industrial and commercial distributed projects in the central and eastern regions, the full investment return rate can be increased by about 1.5 percentage points, which is a icing on the cake; for large power stations in the western region, Increasing the total investment yield by nearly 2 percentage points is almost a slap in the snow – whether the IRR can break through 6% or 8%, sometimes depending on the subsidy.
So, who should the subsidy be ?
Where is the way out for private enterprises?
Judging from the third batch of front-runner projects and the declaration of parity bases in some regions, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have taken an absolute dominant position. In fact, no matter whether it is enterprise scale, government relations, information channels, financing costs, or anti-risk capabilities, private enterprises are difficult to compete with central enterprises.
Taking the financing cost as an example, according to the survey of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in the case of the same project yield, the price of foreign excellent projects is 40% lower than that of the domestic market. In addition to the difference in sunshine resources, the cost difference mainly comes from the cost of capital. Affected by relevant domestic policies, PV projects “funding difficulties and financing expensive†have become common problems. Central enterprises can lend to large state-owned banks, with an annual interest rate of only 3-5%. However, private enterprises are more difficult to borrow from banks, and they often need to find financial leasing companies. The annual interest rate is more than 8%.
Considering that the waiting period for PV subsidies is getting longer and longer, the PV power plants connected to the grid after March 2016 have not yet received subsidies, and some projects are already at a loss. In order to "stop bleeding", many private enterprises choose to sell power plant assets, transfer equity, etc. to obtain cash flow, and the right to speak in the downstream application field of the photovoltaic industry is becoming less and less.
Household photovoltaics should also be "first built first"?
The policy of “adding household PV projects to the 2019 subsidy catalog in the second half of 2018†will protect the enthusiasm of dealers in the short term and help some users recover their losses, but if similar regulations become the rule, household PV indicators Management will become a piece of paper.
Sobi Photovoltaic Network analysis believes that from the previous statistics, the newly added household PV in the second half of 2018 is only about 300MW, accounting for 10% of the 2019 scale, and the impact is relatively small. However, if a large number of household projects are completed and connected to the grid after the 2019 indicator is used up, the impact on the market in 2020 will be difficult to predict, and it is likely to form a vicious circle of “first build and first comeâ€, which is not conducive to the healthy development of household PV.
At the same time, the monthly statistical installation scale and the one-month buffer period may also cause rushing tides, and the system quality and life expectancy are difficult to guarantee. Some dealers said that we only need to grab "630" and "1231" before. Do we need to grab a wave at the end of each month?
Industrial and commercial distributed VS ground power station, which is dominant?
This is a very real problem. According to the bidding rules notified by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the industrial and commercial distributed and centralized power stations are placed on a plate for bidding, and the quoted price of the on-grid electricity price (in terms of the minimum unit) is compared with the lower limit of the bidding price of each resource area. Before the line, determine the items included in the subsidy range until the total amount of subsidies for the selected items reaches the national total new project subsidy limit.
However, the upper limit of industrial and commercial distributed subsidies is only 0.1 yuan / kWh, the space for decline is limited, and the difference between the benchmark power price of the ground power station and the price of coal power often exceeds this number. Taking Shandong Province as an example, the price of coal-fired power generation benchmarks (including desulfurization, out-of-sale, dust removal) is 0.3949 yuan/kWh, while the upper limit bid price for ground power stations is expected to be 0.55 yuan/kWh. If PV investment companies report a feed-in tariff of less than 0.45 yuan / kWh, they still have the opportunity to get renewable energy subsidies, but there is no way for distributed projects, they can only abandon the declaration and are forced to enter the parity online stage.
From the perspective of reducing the intensity of subsidies, it is reasonable to use the bidding method to allocate subsidy indicators. The national chess game and public ranking can also avoid black-box operation, which reduces the non-technical cost of photovoltaic projects to some extent. So, can we consider treating ground power plant projects and industrial and commercial distributed PV differently? Or, simply sorting according to the demand for subsidy intensity, and providing subsidies for more PV projects as much as possible is also a good idea.
Should the front runner continue?
Originally, the third batch of top runners’ bonus indicators and the fourth batch of front runners’ plans have already begun to declare, but the introduction of the parity online policy has eclipsed the front-runners – if ordinary ground power plants can do without national subsidies, Affordable Internet access, how does the advantage of the leader?
From the perspective of power cut prices, the application of the leader has no meaning, and the technology leader must implement the benchmark electricity price of the corresponding resource area - still taking Shandong as an example, a 500MW technology leader base needs subsidy funds of 116 million yuan per year. (Note: The technology leader uses 1500 hours of calculation per year), and will take a part of the pool of photovoltaic subsidies that were originally tight. It is completely unknown whether industry support can be obtained.
summary
We have no doubt that the competent authorities hope that the photovoltaic industry will develop in a healthy, orderly and stable manner. Overall, the latest policy in this version has many highlights and is supported by a wide range of practitioners. Of course, there is indeed room for improvement in the allocation of subsidy funds, bidding methods, and household management. Previously, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association pointed out that the volume of distributed photovoltaic single projects ranged from tens of kilowatts to several megawatts, and the number of owners was huge. Whether it can simultaneously respond to the evaluation of such orders of magnitude is a major test of the Energy Bureau and related institutions.
It is reported that this Friday (22nd), the National Energy Administration will organize energy authorities in various places to discuss the management of photovoltaic projects, and may adjust the latest policies, especially in terms of indicator management. The photovoltaic policy will be officially issued in 2019, and it will not be too far away.
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