Abstract The reporter learned from authoritative sources that as an important part of the supply-side reform, the state is planning to tackle the problem of overcapacity, and will accelerate the establishment of a more effective exit mechanism and use market-based means to further resolve overcapacity. There are indications that the country is overweight...
The reporter learned from authoritative sources that as an important part of the supply-side reform, the state is planning to tackle the problem of overcapacity and will accelerate the establishment of a more effective exit mechanism and use market-based means to further resolve overcapacity. There are indications that the steel industry is the first to bear the brunt of the country's overweight in overcapacity. However, despite the country's frequent over-regulation of overcapacity in the steel industry in the past decade, the domestic steel industry is facing double pressures of high production capacity and sluggish demand. The risk of overcapacity is accumulating, and the entire industry is facing an unprecedented wave of bankruptcy restructuring. .
Attacking the country will clean up the iron fist overcapacity
The reporter learned from authoritative sources that resolving overcapacity in some industries has become an important task in adjusting the industrial structure. The state is preparing to accelerate the resolution of overcapacity problems. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries are actively investigating and formulating relevant opinions. "This is one of the important tasks of the central 'heavy fist' governance this year, involving industries with excess capacity such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, shipbuilding, etc." said the source.
The above-mentioned person told reporters that the relevant departments have conducted long-term research. On the basis of current industry policy regulations, the next step will be to strictly control new projects in overcapacity industries, and will also strictly rectify illegal construction projects. On the other hand, through the energy consumption indicators, environmental verification standards, bank credit, accountability, etc. to raise the threshold of the industry, to achieve the survival of the fittest by means of market-based means, thereby preventing further deterioration of overcapacity. It is worth noting that as these surplus industries are concentrated in the basic manufacturing industry, involving local investment and employment, the next step will be to consider establishing and improving a more effective exit mechanism.
Feng Fei, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, said recently that he is formulating a plan for the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. The steel industry is an absolute surplus industry. To be able to withdraw, it is necessary to speed up the "market clearing." Feng Fei said that the problem of severe overcapacity in some traditional manufacturing industries is further highlighted. In particular, the situation of overcapacity in the industries of steel, cement, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, and ships is more severe.
Feng Fei believes that the problem of overcapacity in steel is more prominent, and it is an absolute excess and also has structural problems. The problem facing the steel industry is how to resolve the contradiction of overcapacity. The biggest difficulty faced by traditional manufacturing industry is that the problem of serious overcapacity is further highlighted. Second, the problem of corporate profitability; third, the lack of innovation and transformation capability of enterprises. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China’s elimination of backward production capacity achieved very obvious results, mainly in 19 industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, light industry, textiles and food. Not only did the goal of the 12th Five-Year Plan be completed one year ahead of schedule, but also the additional goals were completed. But the problem of overcapacity still exists.
The crisis industry has suffered huge losses of 10 billion yuan
Although the WISCO Group officially denied the list of 6,169 layoffs, the large-scale shutdown of the steel industry is an indisputable fact. Statistics show that from the end of last year to December this year, China's steel production capacity reached 64.35 million tons.
“This has never been experienced.†Wang Lei, a steel industry practitioner, said that in his memory, even in the financial crisis of 2008, there was no such large-scale shutdown. The fact that it is in front of us is not only the unsatisfactory sales, but also the steel price drop is very serious. It has far exceeded the range that the steel mill's cost “red line†can withstand. The continuous deterioration of the business has caused widespread losses in the steel industry. Today, the steel industry has stopped production for a year, and the scale of production is increasing.
Since October, Fujian Sangang, Xuanhua Steel, Chengyu Vanadium and Titanium, Baotou Steel, Shougang Changzhi, Xinfu Steel and other steel mills have successively stopped production in the form of production line maintenance. Many steel companies in the Tangshan area of ​​Hebei Province directly stopped production. On November 14, Tangshan Yuting Steel Plant announced that it had stopped production and became the second production mill of more than 5 million tons after Shanxi Haixin.
Near the end of the year, like many industry insiders who have been in the steel industry for decades, Wang Lei is not optimistic about the prospects of the steel industry next year. With the end of the “golden 10 years†of China's steel industry, China's steel industry has entered “the current steel industryâ€. In the cold winter, the consumption of steel fell, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, the vicious competition was fierce, the price fell, and the industry suffered serious losses.
“One ton of steel will lose nearly 200 yuan, steel mills are vying to cut prices, and the situation is getting worse.†He admitted to the reporter that because of the pessimism about the later market, on the one hand, steel mills are desperately trying to drive down inventory, and on the other hand, they are also competing through price. In order to sell goods, although iron ore and other raw materials have been hitting new lows this year, they have not turned the company into a profit, and the steel industry is still suffering.
According to the latest data, among the large and medium-sized steel enterprises included in the statistics of the Steel Association, from January to October, the accumulated losses of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises totaled 38.638 billion yuan, of which the main business loss was 72 billion yuan, and 48 of the 101 large and medium-sized steel enterprises suffered losses. The loss side expanded to 47.5% and the average sales profit margin was -1.5%.
What is worrying is that due to the continued weakness of the market, steel companies and user funds are in a tight state, and it is difficult to sell goods, especially the cash ratio of goods returned is low, and steel companies are generally facing financial constraints. As the debt ratio continues to rise, the debt risk becomes more pronounced.
"The huge losses are so serious, and continuing to maintain excessive production will definitely lead to catastrophic consequences, which will not only cause huge risks in the steel industry, but also bring risks to other related industries." Li Xinchuang, deputy secretary-general of China Iron and Steel Association Say.
Countermeasure reform approval method strict market access
The fact that is in front of us is that despite the government’s heavy blows, the overcapacity of the steel industry in the past decade has had little effect. The internal data obtained by the reporters from various associations shows that in the steel industry, the production capacity in 2003 was nearly 300 million tons. In 2012, the production capacity has exceeded 1 billion tons. According to incomplete statistics, the current steel production capacity is close to 1.2 billion tons. On the other hand, the global demand is sluggish. The latest research by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning Institute indicates that the actual consumption of steel in China in 2015 is 668 million tons, down 4% year-on-year. The actual consumption of steel in China is forecast to be 648 million tons in 2016. Reduced by 20 million tons, down 3% year-on-year.
“The way to centrally approve and control competition has been difficult to curb overcapacity.†An industry expert told reporters that he must see that because overcapacity industries such as steel are often the mainstay of local government finance, involving local fiscal revenue, Employment, economic stability and other issues. On the other hand, the excess capacity is not only backward production capacity, but also a large number of advanced production capacity generated by structural disorderly development. These are the key issues that cannot be fundamentally solved by the over-capacity policy.
Many experts believe that the most urgent task for resolving conflicts is to strictly restrict market access, promote the linkage of industrial policies, fiscal policies, land policies and environmental protection policies, strictly control the disorderly expansion of production capacity, speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, reduce existing production capacity, and promote enterprise development. Improve industrial concentration. However, in the long run, to solve this problem, we must change the management method that relies on administrative examination and approval as soon as possible, and turn to actively promote the improvement of market mechanisms and reduce government intervention.
Xu Xiangchun, director of our steel network consulting, said in an interview that the deep-seated problem is that with the gradual transformation of China's economic structure, the economic growth model that relied on basic investment has shifted towards innovation and technology, while steel and steel. The basic industry must also be adjusted accordingly, but in fact, the current overcapacity situation in the steel industry has not eased, and the unreasonable industrial structure has not changed. This has caused the steel industry to struggle at the edge of the loss. From the current external environment faced by steel enterprises, steel demand is close to saturation. With the decline in demand due to economic restructuring and the pressure of banks not renewing loans, more steel mills may face the risk of financial breaks in the later period. . This also means that the industry's reshuffle will be further increased, and it will also create more opportunities for the merger and reorganization of the steel industry in the later period.
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