Lu Jianhua, director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that due to the increase in supply of iron ore in the international market and slowing demand, the relationship between supply and demand will develop in the direction of basic equilibrium, and the iron ore price in the international market will also return to rationality. When attending the 6th China International Conference on Iron and Steel Materials , Lu Jianhua made the above statement.
In the first three quarters of this year, the increase in iron ore imports in China has declined. Ministry of Commerce statistics show that from January to September this year, China imported 247 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 24.2%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the same period last year. This is the first time that the increase in iron ore imports in China has fallen below 30% since 2003. The Ministry of Commerce estimates that 320 million tons of iron ore will be imported in the whole year, and the growth rate will fall by 12%. China's iron ore imports will grow steadily from rapid growth.
Lu Jianhua said that since the beginning of this year, China's domestic production of iron ore has grown rapidly, which has enhanced domestic supply capacity and has enhanced its competitiveness compared with imported mines. From January to September this year, a total of 406 million tons of ore were produced by mines above the designated size, an increase of 37.7% year-on-year. It is expected that the increase in domestic iron ore production will reach more than 30% for the whole year, which is much higher than the increase in iron and steel production and iron ore imports during the same period. Moreover, the current market price of China's domestic iron ore shows a downward trend, and its factory price is lower than that of imported ore, which has produced a significant substitution effect on imported ore.
“The new round of oversupply in the iron ore market is about to take shape and the iron ore price will show a downward trend,†said Lu Jianhua. In recent years, the price of iron ore has continuously risen sharply, which has stimulated the investment and development of the global mining industry including China, and the production of iron ore has increased significantly. The increase in production capacity of major global mining companies will be released in the next two years. With the steady development of the global economy, in particular, China has stepped up measures such as strengthening the macro-control of the steel industry, repressing new production capacity, accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity, and reducing the export tax rebate rate of some steel products. The growth rate of the global steel industry including China is also increasing. It will gradually slow down, and the supply and demand relationship in the iron ore market will change.