People's Daily: The economy is very likely to bottom out in a year or two.

Accelerating innovation and development and understanding the situation correctly are of paramount importance. This requires us to accurately grasp the current opportunities and conditions for China's economic and social development.

China is in the critical period of economic transformation
At present, China's economy is still facing greater downward pressure. Where is the "bottom"? What is the outlook behind the rapid growth? This is an important issue that we directly faced during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. China's economic growth rate has dropped. Intuitively, it has changed from the high-speed growth of about 10% in the past to the medium-high-speed growth. The back is the systematic transformation of economic structure, growth momentum and institutional policies. From the long-term growth process, it is the transition of the growth stage. It can be called "transformation rebalancing", that is, the balance from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. The realization of this balance will depend on three conditions: First, from the demand side, high investment will bottom out; second, from the supply side, the production capacity should be in place; third, in the medium and long term, new kinetic energy should be formed.
After more than six years of slowdown, the above three conditions gradually formed. The three major demands for high investment, namely, infrastructure investment, real estate investment and exports are stabilizing; the progress of de-capacity has progressed, and the ex-factory price of industrial products has started to reverse. Even though the new growth momentum cannot fully hedge the old kinetic energy in terms of scale. The decline, but showing a good momentum in improving the quality and efficiency of growth and expanding the development space.
At present, China's economic growth is very close to the bottom, and it is at a time when pressure and difficulty are large, and at the same time, the dawn of successful transformation has been seen. If the supply-side structural reform can make substantial progress, China’s economy is likely to succeed in bottoming out in the next year or two. The bottoming mentioned here is not to say that there will be a so-called V-shaped or U-shaped reversal, but that the growth rate will not continue to fall but will be stabilized. Entering the lower side of the L-shaped, that is, entering a speed, A more creative and sustainable medium- and high-speed growth platform. From the international experience, this platform is likely to be stable for 5 to 10 years or even a longer period, thus laying a solid foundation for us to achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020 and a longer-term development goal.

Quality catch-up phase needs more innovation development
At present, China's per capita GDP is about 8,000 US dollars, and the per capita GDP of developed countries is more than 40,000 US dollars. We must approach or catch up with the per capita income level of developed countries, and most of the catch-up should be completed in the medium-to-high-speed growth period. If the rapid growth in the past 30 years is mainly due to the number of catch-ups, then after entering the medium-to-high-speed growth period, it is mainly the quality catch-up.
Compared with the number of catch-up periods, one of the characteristics of the quality catch-up period is that the external changes are slowing down and the difficulty of catching up is increased, mainly from the past “shopping” to “upper steps”. Quality catch-up has very different requirements for development conditions, institutional and policy environments than quantity catch-up.
The first is to correct resource mismatches. At present, there are still large differences in productivity between industries, indicating that the factors are not well flowed and the allocation is poor. The root cause lies in administrative monopoly, and the market-oriented flow and pricing of factors are hindered. By deepening reforms to correct resource mismatches, large-scale demand will still be released in traditional industries, especially investment needs that are conducive to efficiency. More importantly, it can increase productivity, increase revenue, and mitigate potential risks. This is also the area with the greatest potential for cost reduction in the current supply-side structural reforms.
The second is to stimulate industrial upgrading. Industrial upgrading will bring about deepening of professional division of labor and cooperation, and appropriate improvement of industrial concentration; more development and utilization of medium and high-level production factors, comprehensive improvement of human capital quality, optimization of resource allocation; from industry standards to craftsmanship To comprehensively promote the system and cultural construction of refined production.
The third is to accelerate innovation and development. The difference between innovation and industrial upgrading lies in: most of the contents of industrial upgrading, developed countries already have, we have to follow, that is, the meaning of catching up mentioned above; and innovation is from nothing, we are developed The country is generally on the same starting line. After entering the quality catch-up phase, whether innovation is sufficiently active, especially whether the probability of successful innovation is high enough, becomes a key factor in achieving the development goal of the quality catch-up phase.

Accelerating innovation and development needs to solve problems
Create an innovative environment based on respect for the law of innovation. In this regard, the government should play a more “smart” role, including protecting property rights, especially intellectual property rights, providing effective incentives for innovation activities; stabilizing the expectations of entrepreneurs and researchers so that they can work peacefully in research and development activities; Attracting innovative elements to gather and optimize allocation; improving the quality of human capital, correspondingly reforming education and research and development systems; deepening financial reforms; providing financial support for innovation in the entire chain;
Make resources flow more to innovation activities. Although the current service industry accounts for more than the manufacturing industry, manufacturing is still the core of national competitiveness and the focus of innovation activities. The idea of ​​building a country, a real economy, and an innovation-driven concept and policy orientation must be firmly established. The real estate market and financial market in the service industry are easy to form an economic bubble, attracting a large number of resources to weaken the reality, weakening the ability of innovation and development, and even leading to large fluctuations in finance and economy, and seriously undermining the economic and social development environment. We must be highly vigilant, timely suppress various forms of economic bubbles, and direct resources to areas that are conducive to promoting innovation and improving factor productivity.
Encourage innovation competition everywhere. The elements of innovation are fluid, and only where more innovative elements are attracted will there be more opportunities for innovation success. Therefore, a large number of innovations have emerged in innovative cities or regional innovation centers. However, innovative urban or regional innovation centers are not artificially designated but formed in competition. Local competition is an important driving force for China's past development. The new stage should make the improvement of the innovation environment a new element of local competition. Greater innovation and experimental space should be given to local and grassroots organizations to encourage the formation of innovative models with their own strengths and distinctive features.
(The author is the vice chairman of the China Development Research Foundation) Source: People's Daily

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