According to Bernreuter's preliminary forecast, global polysilicon production fell to 228,000 MT in 2013, down 4% from 238,000 MT in 2012, mainly due to lower capacity utilization in the first quarter of 2013. However, in 2013, the newly added PV installed capacity increased by double-digit percentage to 36GW, consuming a large amount of polysilicon inventories in 2011 and 2012.
BernreuterResearch founder Johannes Bernreuter said: "Although the closure of 135,000 MT of polysilicon production since 2011 has eased overcapacity in the short term, new market competitors and relaunched Chinese factories will subvert the balance between supply and demand - at the latest It will break out in 2015."
The report predicts that polysilicon prices in the spot market will fall from $18 per kilogram at the end of 2013 to $16 at the end of 2014. However, the strong growth of the photovoltaic industry is expected to consume 90% of polysilicon shipments, which will help drive the growth of spot prices.
In addition, Bernreuter Research predicts three scenarios for PV installed capacity this year: 43 GW (low), 46 GW (base) and 49 GW (high). In the high position, in the first half of 2014, polysilicon prices are expected to rise to 21-24 US dollars per kilogram. However, the report predicts that in either case, at the end of 2014, spot prices will fall to $16 per kilogram.
The report shows that because low-cost polysilicon of up to 66,000 MT is about to go online, costly manufacturers are likely to be squeezed out, and spot prices are likely to fall. About one-third of the new capacity is based on fluidized bed reactor technology using monosilane. While maintaining high purity silicon, the production cost of this technology is still far below the mature process. Based on this, the report believes that the possibility of sustainable growth in prices is extremely low.
Bernreuter claims: "At least for the next three years, some of the industry's dreams of $25 per kilogram, or even $30, are still mirage."
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