On the first day of the Year of the Monkey (Monday, February 8th), the oil price market was like "Monkey Jumping Tree". The crude oil futures price showed a wave of dip in the European market. The US oil has not changed from about 0.5% in the past two hours. More than 2.0%, the lowest three-day low to 30.20 US dollars / barrel; Brent April crude oil futures fell more than 1.1 US dollars to 33.25 US dollars / barrel, down 2.26% earlier.
From the reasons of oil price diving: Citigroup insisted on bearish oil prices due to high inventories, Eurozone data exacerbated the impression of weak global economy, non-agricultural data “false weakness†preheated the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations in March, all were bearish oil prices.
[Citigroup insists on bearish oil prices] Citi Energy analyst Evans said on February 8 that the high US crude oil inventories are evidence of excess crude oil supply. In any commodity market, if stocks are at a high level for more than 85 years, the market Both will hold a bearish view.
[Eurozone data intensifies the impression of “global weaknessâ€] In terms of data, the intraday and European market data has aggravated the impression of a weak global economy, which has added to the weak demand for crude oil in addition to overstocking concerns. Eurozone Sentix investor confidence fell to 6.0 in February, the lowest level since November 2014, and is expected to fall to 7.6, the previous value of 9.6. Market research firm Sentix said that the loss of energy in Germany and the UK has cast a shadow over the eurozone economy, and the global economy is currently in a very fragile state, suggesting that the eurozone is not immune to the global economic slowdown.
[Non-agricultural data is weak, the US dollar is risking pressure on oil prices] The US non-farm payrolls data on January 5th was “fakely weakâ€, the unemployment rate hit an eight-year low and the salary increased brilliantly, and the market raised interest rates for the Fed in March. The expectation of reheating, the possibility that the dollar is expected to rise again, will also bring a short atmosphere to the crude oil market. The US dollar index is currently testing the 200-day moving average.
Oil prices rose earlier in the lighter Asian market. Many Asian markets are closed for the Lunar New Year, and the European market lacks important news. The market is expected to wait for Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen’s congressional testimony to find clues.
Ric Spooner, chief analyst at CMC Market in Sydney, said that the crude oil seen last week has stabilized but has not completely subverted the market. The market expects Yellen's congressional testimony on Wednesday (February 10) that US crude oil inventories will also be released on the same day. "We will wait and see and be cautiously waiting for the guidance of Yellen's testimony and crude oil inventories on Wednesday."
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and the Venezuelan oil minister discussed "OPEC cooperates with other oil-producing countries in order to stabilize the oil market", but no agreement has been reached.
Venezuelan oil minister Eulogio Del Pino said the talks with the Saudi oil minister were "constructive." The Venezuelan oil minister is one of the ministers of the OPEC member states calling for a reduction in oil prices.
Last month, relevant rumors and market expectations related to crude oil production cut helped oil prices break away from the 12-year low. Although the market is full of doubts about whether the production agreement can be reached, the short position of the crude oil market is still high, which still boosts the market short-covering. Part of the price of oil.
The president of VitolGroup, the world's largest energy trader, believes that oil prices will remain at $40-60/barrel in the next 10 years. His reasons are: due to China's economic slowdown and the development of the US shale oil industry, crude oil prices may be difficult to rebound sharply; oil prices are expected to continue at 5-10 years at the low level of 40-60 US dollars / barrel, but 2016 Oil prices may recover to $40-45/barrel in the second half of the year; VitolGroup's daily crude oil and refinery products total more than 5 million barrels, enough to cover the combined demand of Germany, France and Spain.
At 18:40 Beijing time, US March crude oil futures reported a decrease of 2.10% in the US$30.36/barrel; Brent April crude oil futures reported a decrease of 2.02% in the US$33.44/barrel.
From the reasons of oil price diving: Citigroup insisted on bearish oil prices due to high inventories, Eurozone data exacerbated the impression of weak global economy, non-agricultural data “false weakness†preheated the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations in March, all were bearish oil prices.
[Citigroup insists on bearish oil prices] Citi Energy analyst Evans said on February 8 that the high US crude oil inventories are evidence of excess crude oil supply. In any commodity market, if stocks are at a high level for more than 85 years, the market Both will hold a bearish view.
[Eurozone data intensifies the impression of “global weaknessâ€] In terms of data, the intraday and European market data has aggravated the impression of a weak global economy, which has added to the weak demand for crude oil in addition to overstocking concerns. Eurozone Sentix investor confidence fell to 6.0 in February, the lowest level since November 2014, and is expected to fall to 7.6, the previous value of 9.6. Market research firm Sentix said that the loss of energy in Germany and the UK has cast a shadow over the eurozone economy, and the global economy is currently in a very fragile state, suggesting that the eurozone is not immune to the global economic slowdown.
[Non-agricultural data is weak, the US dollar is risking pressure on oil prices] The US non-farm payrolls data on January 5th was “fakely weakâ€, the unemployment rate hit an eight-year low and the salary increased brilliantly, and the market raised interest rates for the Fed in March. The expectation of reheating, the possibility that the dollar is expected to rise again, will also bring a short atmosphere to the crude oil market. The US dollar index is currently testing the 200-day moving average.
Oil prices rose earlier in the lighter Asian market. Many Asian markets are closed for the Lunar New Year, and the European market lacks important news. The market is expected to wait for Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen’s congressional testimony to find clues.
Ric Spooner, chief analyst at CMC Market in Sydney, said that the crude oil seen last week has stabilized but has not completely subverted the market. The market expects Yellen's congressional testimony on Wednesday (February 10) that US crude oil inventories will also be released on the same day. "We will wait and see and be cautiously waiting for the guidance of Yellen's testimony and crude oil inventories on Wednesday."
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and the Venezuelan oil minister discussed "OPEC cooperates with other oil-producing countries in order to stabilize the oil market", but no agreement has been reached.
Venezuelan oil minister Eulogio Del Pino said the talks with the Saudi oil minister were "constructive." The Venezuelan oil minister is one of the ministers of the OPEC member states calling for a reduction in oil prices.
Last month, relevant rumors and market expectations related to crude oil production cut helped oil prices break away from the 12-year low. Although the market is full of doubts about whether the production agreement can be reached, the short position of the crude oil market is still high, which still boosts the market short-covering. Part of the price of oil.
The president of VitolGroup, the world's largest energy trader, believes that oil prices will remain at $40-60/barrel in the next 10 years. His reasons are: due to China's economic slowdown and the development of the US shale oil industry, crude oil prices may be difficult to rebound sharply; oil prices are expected to continue at 5-10 years at the low level of 40-60 US dollars / barrel, but 2016 Oil prices may recover to $40-45/barrel in the second half of the year; VitolGroup's daily crude oil and refinery products total more than 5 million barrels, enough to cover the combined demand of Germany, France and Spain.
At 18:40 Beijing time, US March crude oil futures reported a decrease of 2.10% in the US$30.36/barrel; Brent April crude oil futures reported a decrease of 2.02% in the US$33.44/barrel.
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