According to media reports, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for the development of strategic emerging industries has entered the stage of soliciting opinions, and the pace of introduction is approaching. As one of the seven strategic emerging industries, new energy will focus on the four major industries of nuclear power, wind power, solar energy and biomass energy. Among them, the installed capacity of solar energy and biomass power generation is basically determined, that is, 10 million kilowatts and 13 million kilowatts respectively in the next five years. The industry believes that the development of the new energy industry will bring substantial benefits to related industries. Based on the recent industrial hotspots, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the market by Ping An Securities, Gao Hua Securities and other brokers to make a deep interpretation of this group for reference.
A industry hotspot
Domestic PV market is about to start
On August 1, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Improving the On-grid Price Policy for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation", pointing out the solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved by the construction before July 1, 2011 and completed and put into operation on December 31, 2011. The on-grid price is uniformly approved at 1.15 yuan per kWh (including tax); solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on or after July 1, 2011, and approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed as of December 31, 2011 In addition to the implementation of the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan per kWh in Tibet, the on-grid tariffs of other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are executed at 1 yuan per kWh. In the future, the NDRC will adjust in time according to factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress.
Analysis: PV electricity prices have been expected for a long time, which is considered to be a landmark event in the domestic PV market, but most of them thought that it might be launched next year, and now it is more than expected. The analysis believes that the government's move is due to the fact that PV modules have reached the target of about 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour after the price reduction, and on the other hand, the industry hopes to start the domestic market as soon as possible when the foreign market is sluggish. Appeal.
The installed cost of the system in the western region is between 16 yuan and 18 yuan. If the debt interest rate is 5.5%, the equivalent peak hour is 2000 hours, and the electricity price is 1.15 yuan, the 25-year project yield can reach 17%. Has a good appeal.
Judging from the published policy content, the on-grid tariff is higher than the local desulfurization price, and is supplemented by renewable energy tariffs. At present, China's electricity consumption is about 4 trillion kWh. According to the current price increase standard of 4 kWh per kWh, it can charge about 10 billion yuan a year. If 30% of the subsidized PV is taken, it can subsidize more than 4GW per year. It is predicted that this year's domestic new installation opportunities will be 1.4-1.5GW, and there may be about 3GW next year, and may reach 5GW in the next year. These quantities will not be limited by subsidies.
The analysis believes that this policy will have a different impact on the domestic PV industry, and inverters, system installers and equipment manufacturers will benefit more.
Analysts said that the announcement of PV prices is very beneficial to the long-term development of the industry, but the degree of profitability of the PV industry is not the same for this year and next. Considering the two effective markets of Europe and China, most domestic enterprises may still have less increments next year, which will be more favorable for enterprises with brand and scale effects.
Therefore, inverters, system installers and equipment manufacturers will benefit even more if the policy constitutes a certain degree of benefit to the component plant. Most domestic inverter manufacturers and system installers are small in scale. The domestic market is a big cake that is realistic and easier to obtain. The launch of the domestic market is huge and direct. In addition, the expected improvement is good. The willingness to expand production of the big factory has been strengthened and strengthened, and the demand for equipment will continue to grow.
Under the background of exceeding the expected policy support and the company's shipments may continue to go from August to October, the photovoltaic sector as a whole is expected to usher in a new wave of rising prices.
B industry hotspot
Nuclear power technology has achieved substantial breakthroughs
1. The Ministry of Science and Technology recently announced the “National “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for Science and Technology Developmentâ€, confirming that large-scale advanced pressurized water reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plants have been included in the national science and technology major projects. The official website of the Ministry of Finance recently issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Import Tax Policies for Major Technical Equipments Such as the Third Generation of Nuclear Power Units", stating that the key components such as the third-generation nuclear power units will be exempted from customs duties and import value-added tax in accordance with the regulations of the relevant competent authorities. According to another report, the State Council initially approved a set of reconstruction plans, that is, the second-generation nuclear power plants that have been constructed for the initial stage of construction will be completely converted to use third-generation nuclear power technology, especially those projects that have not yet cast concrete, all of which have been converted into three-generation nuclear power plants.
Analysis: Large-scale advanced pressurized water reactors have been included in major projects, and nuclear power technology investment has not been reduced. Among the large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor technologies currently under development, CAP1400 developed on the basis of AP1000 technology, and AP1000 and CPR 1000 developed by China National Nuclear Corporation The ACP1000, which has the advantages of two types of stacking, is under development. The large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor is listed in the national science and technology major project, further clarifying the strategic position of nuclear power and the layout of nuclear power localization.
The conversion of technical routes will benefit AP1000 equipment suppliers for a long time. The report said: the unification of nuclear circuit lines will be conducive to the concentration of domestic technical forces, nuclear power equipment can achieve large-scale production. China's first heavy and double heavy equipment that will produce AP1000 equipment will benefit first. Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric, which have subcontracted qualifications for AP1000 equipment, will benefit from the long-term approval of nuclear power projects.
2. The public news shows that China's first Chinese experimental fast reactor caused by fast neutrons has successfully achieved grid-connected power generation. The comprehensive realization of the major project objectives of the “863†program of this country marks a major breakthrough in the fast reactor technology listed in the frontier technology of the national medium- and long-term science and technology development plan. This also marks an important step in China's occupation of nuclear power technology and the establishment of a sustainable nuclear energy system.
Analysis: Fast reactor not only solves the dual problems of uranium resources and spent fuel, but also its technology is the fourth generation of nuclear power plants, and its safety performance is greatly improved. It is expected to be promoted after commercialization. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the outside world questioned the development of China's nuclear power, but the investment in technology research and development in the nuclear power industry has not decreased. The localization process of the third-generation A P1000 has accelerated, and the major special CA P1400 research and development is still in progress and included in the "national". The 12th Five-Year Plan for Science and Technology Development, the fourth-generation nuclear power plant was successfully connected to the grid, and the nuclear power industry has not stopped developing.
Uranium resources are the "food" of nuclear power plants. At the time when the world's countries prospered nuclear power, people began to worry about the sustainability of uranium resources. The price of international uranium resources has skyrocketed, and the limited reserves of uranium resources have once become the bottleneck for the development of nuclear power.
The fast reactor is based on the technology of pressurized water reactor spent fuel. The reactors we operate now have a utilization rate of only 1% of uranium resources. After a "burning", not only a large amount of uranium still exists, but also a higher fission value. The nuclides are produced and can be recycled.
The breakthrough of fast reactor technology will enable China to have complete technical conditions for closed-loop nuclear fuel. The utilization rate of uranium resources has increased 60 times to 60%, and the volume and disposal time of radioactive waste in spent fuel has also been greatly reduced. Significantly reduce the difficulty and cost of spent fuel treatment.
The analysis believes that the realization of this technology will change people's expectations of the shortage of uranium resources, the price of international uranium mine will also return to rationality, and this technology also reduces the social concerns about the disposal of radioactive waste. The rapid development of nuclear power worldwide will no longer be restricted by uranium resources. The breakthrough of this technology has formed a positive impact on the development of the nuclear power industry, and has exerted certain pressure on the acquisition of overseas uranium resources related enterprises.
C industry hotspot
Wind power approval formally incorporated into national unified planning
As the first ring for the approval of local wind power projects, the first batch of 26 million kilowatt project development plans of the national unified plan has been issued to various places. The proposed 26 million kilowatt project was approved by the National Energy Administration and is scheduled to be completed by 2012. In addition to the local approval projects, they will not be included in the unified grid-connected planning, and will no longer enjoy the additional subsidies for renewable energy tariffs.
This development plan has also become part of the forthcoming “Measures for the Management of Wind Farm Development and Constructionâ€. The "Measures" also proposed a series of technical specifications for the wind farm from the preliminary preparation work and the later operation management.
Analysis: For the future development of the wind power industry, analysts believe that wind farms are better than equipment manufacturers. The recovery of equipment manufacturers depends on the development of wind farms. The current situation, wind farms and wind turbine manufacturers are increasingly fragmented. For wind turbine manufacturers, their gross profit margin and average selling price will fall further by 15%, 11% and 4% in 2011, 2012 and 2013. They are still indirectly financing the working capital of wind farms. It is expected that the fundamentals of these companies will be difficult to stabilize before mid-2012, so it is not currently recommended to buy equipment stocks.
According to the analysis, wind farms with large scale will benefit from: more controllable grid-connected improvement due to wind power installed capacity; improved wind turbine technology and stability; lower construction and operation costs; and regional diversification of wind farms More stable cash flow; long-term overseas expansion.
In view of this, successful wind power equipment manufacturers need to take advantage of the above trends, optimize inventory, capacity utilization, have independent and reliable wind turbine technology, balance the price reduction and extend the relationship between warranty periods, and provide equipment suitable for different wind energy conditions. Established a joint venture with the wind farm to invest in overseas markets.
In the first five months of this year, China has 4.1GW of wind turbine capacity connected to the grid, up 33% year-on-year. This is because the cooperation between wind farms and power grids has strengthened; more wind turbines are installed in East China and South China, and the grid connection in these areas is generally not There are big problems and the demand for wind power is stronger. China is planning a concession tender for the second round of offshore wind farms with a total installed capacity of 1.5-2 GW. Analysts worry that bidders are eager to grab market share and the profit margin falls below the mean. Competition in wind turbine capacity may drive wind turbine manufacturers to improve their R&D capabilities, but it will also neglect the improvement of the quality of existing products.
A industry hotspot
Domestic PV market is about to start
On August 1, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Improving the On-grid Price Policy for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation", pointing out the solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved by the construction before July 1, 2011 and completed and put into operation on December 31, 2011. The on-grid price is uniformly approved at 1.15 yuan per kWh (including tax); solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on or after July 1, 2011, and approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed as of December 31, 2011 In addition to the implementation of the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan per kWh in Tibet, the on-grid tariffs of other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are executed at 1 yuan per kWh. In the future, the NDRC will adjust in time according to factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress.
Analysis: PV electricity prices have been expected for a long time, which is considered to be a landmark event in the domestic PV market, but most of them thought that it might be launched next year, and now it is more than expected. The analysis believes that the government's move is due to the fact that PV modules have reached the target of about 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour after the price reduction, and on the other hand, the industry hopes to start the domestic market as soon as possible when the foreign market is sluggish. Appeal.
The installed cost of the system in the western region is between 16 yuan and 18 yuan. If the debt interest rate is 5.5%, the equivalent peak hour is 2000 hours, and the electricity price is 1.15 yuan, the 25-year project yield can reach 17%. Has a good appeal.
Judging from the published policy content, the on-grid tariff is higher than the local desulfurization price, and is supplemented by renewable energy tariffs. At present, China's electricity consumption is about 4 trillion kWh. According to the current price increase standard of 4 kWh per kWh, it can charge about 10 billion yuan a year. If 30% of the subsidized PV is taken, it can subsidize more than 4GW per year. It is predicted that this year's domestic new installation opportunities will be 1.4-1.5GW, and there may be about 3GW next year, and may reach 5GW in the next year. These quantities will not be limited by subsidies.
The analysis believes that this policy will have a different impact on the domestic PV industry, and inverters, system installers and equipment manufacturers will benefit more.
Analysts said that the announcement of PV prices is very beneficial to the long-term development of the industry, but the degree of profitability of the PV industry is not the same for this year and next. Considering the two effective markets of Europe and China, most domestic enterprises may still have less increments next year, which will be more favorable for enterprises with brand and scale effects.
Therefore, inverters, system installers and equipment manufacturers will benefit even more if the policy constitutes a certain degree of benefit to the component plant. Most domestic inverter manufacturers and system installers are small in scale. The domestic market is a big cake that is realistic and easier to obtain. The launch of the domestic market is huge and direct. In addition, the expected improvement is good. The willingness to expand production of the big factory has been strengthened and strengthened, and the demand for equipment will continue to grow.
Under the background of exceeding the expected policy support and the company's shipments may continue to go from August to October, the photovoltaic sector as a whole is expected to usher in a new wave of rising prices.
B industry hotspot
Nuclear power technology has achieved substantial breakthroughs
1. The Ministry of Science and Technology recently announced the “National “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for Science and Technology Developmentâ€, confirming that large-scale advanced pressurized water reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plants have been included in the national science and technology major projects. The official website of the Ministry of Finance recently issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Import Tax Policies for Major Technical Equipments Such as the Third Generation of Nuclear Power Units", stating that the key components such as the third-generation nuclear power units will be exempted from customs duties and import value-added tax in accordance with the regulations of the relevant competent authorities. According to another report, the State Council initially approved a set of reconstruction plans, that is, the second-generation nuclear power plants that have been constructed for the initial stage of construction will be completely converted to use third-generation nuclear power technology, especially those projects that have not yet cast concrete, all of which have been converted into three-generation nuclear power plants.
Analysis: Large-scale advanced pressurized water reactors have been included in major projects, and nuclear power technology investment has not been reduced. Among the large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor technologies currently under development, CAP1400 developed on the basis of AP1000 technology, and AP1000 and CPR 1000 developed by China National Nuclear Corporation The ACP1000, which has the advantages of two types of stacking, is under development. The large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor is listed in the national science and technology major project, further clarifying the strategic position of nuclear power and the layout of nuclear power localization.
The conversion of technical routes will benefit AP1000 equipment suppliers for a long time. The report said: the unification of nuclear circuit lines will be conducive to the concentration of domestic technical forces, nuclear power equipment can achieve large-scale production. China's first heavy and double heavy equipment that will produce AP1000 equipment will benefit first. Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric, which have subcontracted qualifications for AP1000 equipment, will benefit from the long-term approval of nuclear power projects.
2. The public news shows that China's first Chinese experimental fast reactor caused by fast neutrons has successfully achieved grid-connected power generation. The comprehensive realization of the major project objectives of the “863†program of this country marks a major breakthrough in the fast reactor technology listed in the frontier technology of the national medium- and long-term science and technology development plan. This also marks an important step in China's occupation of nuclear power technology and the establishment of a sustainable nuclear energy system.
Analysis: Fast reactor not only solves the dual problems of uranium resources and spent fuel, but also its technology is the fourth generation of nuclear power plants, and its safety performance is greatly improved. It is expected to be promoted after commercialization. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the outside world questioned the development of China's nuclear power, but the investment in technology research and development in the nuclear power industry has not decreased. The localization process of the third-generation A P1000 has accelerated, and the major special CA P1400 research and development is still in progress and included in the "national". The 12th Five-Year Plan for Science and Technology Development, the fourth-generation nuclear power plant was successfully connected to the grid, and the nuclear power industry has not stopped developing.
Uranium resources are the "food" of nuclear power plants. At the time when the world's countries prospered nuclear power, people began to worry about the sustainability of uranium resources. The price of international uranium resources has skyrocketed, and the limited reserves of uranium resources have once become the bottleneck for the development of nuclear power.
The fast reactor is based on the technology of pressurized water reactor spent fuel. The reactors we operate now have a utilization rate of only 1% of uranium resources. After a "burning", not only a large amount of uranium still exists, but also a higher fission value. The nuclides are produced and can be recycled.
The breakthrough of fast reactor technology will enable China to have complete technical conditions for closed-loop nuclear fuel. The utilization rate of uranium resources has increased 60 times to 60%, and the volume and disposal time of radioactive waste in spent fuel has also been greatly reduced. Significantly reduce the difficulty and cost of spent fuel treatment.
The analysis believes that the realization of this technology will change people's expectations of the shortage of uranium resources, the price of international uranium mine will also return to rationality, and this technology also reduces the social concerns about the disposal of radioactive waste. The rapid development of nuclear power worldwide will no longer be restricted by uranium resources. The breakthrough of this technology has formed a positive impact on the development of the nuclear power industry, and has exerted certain pressure on the acquisition of overseas uranium resources related enterprises.
C industry hotspot
Wind power approval formally incorporated into national unified planning
As the first ring for the approval of local wind power projects, the first batch of 26 million kilowatt project development plans of the national unified plan has been issued to various places. The proposed 26 million kilowatt project was approved by the National Energy Administration and is scheduled to be completed by 2012. In addition to the local approval projects, they will not be included in the unified grid-connected planning, and will no longer enjoy the additional subsidies for renewable energy tariffs.
This development plan has also become part of the forthcoming “Measures for the Management of Wind Farm Development and Constructionâ€. The "Measures" also proposed a series of technical specifications for the wind farm from the preliminary preparation work and the later operation management.
Analysis: For the future development of the wind power industry, analysts believe that wind farms are better than equipment manufacturers. The recovery of equipment manufacturers depends on the development of wind farms. The current situation, wind farms and wind turbine manufacturers are increasingly fragmented. For wind turbine manufacturers, their gross profit margin and average selling price will fall further by 15%, 11% and 4% in 2011, 2012 and 2013. They are still indirectly financing the working capital of wind farms. It is expected that the fundamentals of these companies will be difficult to stabilize before mid-2012, so it is not currently recommended to buy equipment stocks.
According to the analysis, wind farms with large scale will benefit from: more controllable grid-connected improvement due to wind power installed capacity; improved wind turbine technology and stability; lower construction and operation costs; and regional diversification of wind farms More stable cash flow; long-term overseas expansion.
In view of this, successful wind power equipment manufacturers need to take advantage of the above trends, optimize inventory, capacity utilization, have independent and reliable wind turbine technology, balance the price reduction and extend the relationship between warranty periods, and provide equipment suitable for different wind energy conditions. Established a joint venture with the wind farm to invest in overseas markets.
In the first five months of this year, China has 4.1GW of wind turbine capacity connected to the grid, up 33% year-on-year. This is because the cooperation between wind farms and power grids has strengthened; more wind turbines are installed in East China and South China, and the grid connection in these areas is generally not There are big problems and the demand for wind power is stronger. China is planning a concession tender for the second round of offshore wind farms with a total installed capacity of 1.5-2 GW. Analysts worry that bidders are eager to grab market share and the profit margin falls below the mean. Competition in wind turbine capacity may drive wind turbine manufacturers to improve their R&D capabilities, but it will also neglect the improvement of the quality of existing products.
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