Lou Jiwei warns: Be wary of the economic stability illusion

The China Development Forum 2017, hosted by the Development Research Center of the State Council, was held at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on March 18-20, 2017. The theme was “China and the World: Economic Transformation and Structural Reform”. Lou Jiwei, chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council, attended and delivered a speech titled “Key Trends in Shaping the Future of Society”.
Lou Jiwei said that in the process of coping with the financial crisis, policies including monetary policy and fiscal policy can indeed increase leverage, increase total demand in stages, prevent the rapid spread of the crisis, and make good use of this breathing time. Reform measures including financial regulatory improvement and structural reforms to improve total factor productivity, thereby improve aggregate supply capacity, promote structural reforms, respond to short-term crises, and establish a medium- and long-term benign growth mechanism for fiscal Monetary policy can gradually de-leverage and the economy enters a recovery and sustainable growth.
"However, the leverage of monetary and fiscal policies has created an illusion for economic stability, making people reluctant to endure the pain of reform," Lou Jiwei stressed. "So if you waste the time bought by monetary and fiscal policies, Then the policy space will become smaller and smaller, and ultimately it will be necessary to carry out reforms under tight currency and tight financial conditions. The pain will be more intense, and it will be more difficult to achieve consensus and easily slide to the left or right populism."

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