If the steel output still can not fall, the price of steel can't bottom out

In recent days, steel prices have witnessed a drastic fall in this year's “Golden 9 Silver 10”. Some people say that the crash has been close to the momentum of the end of 2008, and some people call it the "dark steel market." Under the increasingly high crude steel production of Nissan, steel mills have realized that they have to reduce their production and have to deal with the situation, with a nearly 5% drop in the steel price index within a week. China Steel's spot network analysis believes that if the output is still unable to fall, steel prices are still difficult to bottom out.

The primary factor for the decline of steel products is demand. According to surveys conducted by China Steel's spot market, the number of orders for various steel mills fell by around 10% to 20% in September. With the sharp drop in steel prices in October, end-users generally postponed purchases, and market transactions were rather sluggish. The phenomenon of panic-looking goods by merchants is widespread, and a small number of transactions are all concentrated at low prices.

The second is financial pressure. Under the present pessimistic steel market, the market turnover is sluggish, steel mills are difficult to ship, funds are difficult to return, and even if they can only continue to drop prices for goods, in order to be a buyer, the same is true for buyers. Faced with financial pressure, but also facing a huge risk, in the absence of major positive support, the business mentality of pessimism, generally bearish outlook, is also very cautious on the procurement of steel terminals, the market is so low. While continuing to cut prices, they are reluctant to buy. When this contradictory situation ends, it will also see whether the steel market output can fall.

According to the statistics report of the China Steel Spot Network, in September, as the growth rate of the main steel industry slowed down, social steel stocks rebounded for the first time in six consecutive months. In the second week of October, the inventory of 26 major steel products reached 15.13 million tons, an increase of 4.6% from the end of September. In the first half of October, the daily output of crude steel was 1,642,700 tons, up by 0.18% from the previous month; the national crude steel output in early October was estimated to be 1,933,900 tons, which was a 0.18% increase from the previous month. In the context of a sharp drop in the market price and a huge pressure on destocking, the supply will only increase, which will greatly increase the burden on steel mills and traders. The steel price is hard to make the bottom.

Under the pressing reality of the harsh reality, some steel mills plan to cut production. According to the latest survey data from China Steel Spot Net, at present, there are less than 10 companies involved in the reduction of production and maintenance of blast furnace converters, affecting production capacity of 1 million tons, and over 30 steel production line maintenance companies, affecting an estimated production capacity of 1.5 million tons. However, compared with the current high Nissan production status, the effect of such a reduction in output is minimal, and the downward trend in steel prices remains obvious.

China Iron and Steel Spot Network believes that if the major steel mills are still unable to stop production and overhaul, reduce daily production, reduce inventory, steel prices may continue to fall, and it is difficult to bottom out, steel market "dark week" may still be reappeared.

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