How should China deal with extreme climate

Extreme Climate: When there is an “abnormal” phenomenon in the weather and climate of a certain place, or when the weather and climate of a place seriously deviate from its average state, it means that an “extreme climate” occurs. The World Meteorological Organization stipulates that if the time, date, month, and year of a certain (or some) climatic factor exceed 25 times or more, or if the "difference" of the corresponding 30-year average exceeds twice the mean square deviation, this (Some) The climatic factor value belongs to the "abnormal" climate value. The climate with "abnormal" climate values ​​is called "extreme climate".

1: Establish a Sound Warning System

In the context of global warming, it is prone to catastrophic climatic events such as snowstorms, droughts, and floods. Without perfect emergency plans, emergency response mechanisms, and material preparation, it will be impossible to effectively adjust the production and livelihoods of units and individuals under severe weather conditions and provide corresponding assistance and services. This will inevitably bring about various new social problems. For a city or an area, all emergencies should not be accidents. In the face of various incidents, we must be able to respond to the situation. Such calmness not only stems from the soundness of various types of contingency plans, but also embodies emergency plans in action.

Only by establishing a complete emergency management mechanism can the city be able to change. The maturity of the emergency plan is the most basic indicator of the maturity of the government's emergency response mechanism. In the face of sudden disasters, it is necessary to increase the government’s ability to respond quickly to emergencies and resist risks, provide quick emergency rescue services to the public, and form an effective social assistance mechanism.

2: Precise forecasting ability

As the saying goes, there are unexpected circumstances. The weather is volatile, and a "pre-" word for weather forecasting determines that it cannot be 100% accurate. This is an objective fact. The meteorological department must improve the accuracy of weather forecasting and enhance monitoring capabilities, especially for observations of icing conditions. In addition to using the results of existing domestic numerical forecasting models, it is also possible to refer to the numerical forecast results of Europe, Japan, and the United States to increase the numerical value. Forecasting the resolution of products, with accurate weather forecasting, the party and the government have the decision-making basis to win the overall victory in disaster prevention and resilience.

3: Improve the overall quality of the public

The government departments must strengthen education for the people, especially education for disaster prevention, self-rescue, and national disaster resistance. In the face of an extremely catastrophic climate, we must unite as one and respond positively to the government's call to ensure the smooth implementation of disaster prevention and resilience. To further strengthen the education of cadres at all levels,

4: Strengthen technological innovation

In response to frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, it is necessary to strengthen technological innovation in response to extreme calamities, increase the propaganda of scientific and technological disaster relief through various media and networks, popularize scientific and technological disaster-resilient technologies, and strive to reduce disaster losses and ensure production; To refine scientific and technological research projects, increase research and forecast on severe weather monitoring and forecasting of geological disasters in the middle and low latitudes, safeguard production and living infrastructure, and other major lifeline disaster prevention projects, major natural disasters, emergency response, and disaster risk assessment. Technology integration support. National science and technology plans should give priority to support, and local science and technology authorities at all levels must also combine local needs and give special support to disaster prevention and reduction when arranging local science and technology projects, and provide effective technical support for improving the ability to respond to major natural disasters.

5: Pay attention to secondary disaster prevention

After a major disaster, people tend to be relaxed and paralyzed. However, on the contrary, it is necessary to attach great importance to the elimination of secondary disasters such as landslides, geological disasters, collapse of houses, freezing and freezing of dead animals and plants caused by disasters, and to take necessary countermeasures to make losses caused by disasters through scientific disasters. Reconstruction can be resumed as soon as possible. It will enable them to have a new understanding of the extreme climate change in the future, and thus be able to resolutely implement the various policies and decrees of the country in the aspects of environmental issues, energy conservation and emission reduction issues.

We should learn from the disasters and gain inspirations, further strengthen the capacity building for comprehensive monitoring of meteorological disasters, strengthen the research on early warning and forecasting and impact assessment techniques for extreme meteorological disasters in the context of global climate change, and strengthen the research, application, and popularization of science and technology for dealing with extreme meteorological disasters. Enhance public self-rescue and mutual rescue capabilities, and constantly improve and improve the country's infrastructure, ethics, and legal systems, and improve its response capabilities.

Explain : The scourge of global warming?

Abnormalities, although the experts did not affirm the direct cause, they all mentioned the same background and global warming. After the torrential rains on May 6, the preliminary analysis of relevant experts concluded that this may be related to the global warming and the rain island effect brought by urbanization.

In this regard, Professor Wen Zhiping, Director of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, pointed out that the relevant data curves are quite consistent and the two may be related.

Immediately, three heavy rains in Guangzhou each year equaled one quarter of the annual rainfall, and the rainfall reached 440 millimeters, breaking the previous record of the flood season. At this time, experts explained the above global warming factors more specifically:

With the increase of extreme events under global warming, the most obvious observations are that Guangdong has seen fewer days of rain and more rain in recent years. There were fewer incidents of medium rainfall magnitude, and there was an increase in torrential rainstorms, mainly due to the escalation of air convection caused by greenhouse gases. In addition, with the acceleration of urbanization, the role of urban rain islands will in turn amplify the climate warming.

Considering the torrential rains of Guangdong in the neighboring provinces at similar times, you can even find inextricable connections. Wen Zhiping believes that heavy rain is a local phenomenon, but there are interactions within different spatial and temporal scales within the larger atmospheric circulation. It cannot be denied that there are large-scale interactions between the Chongqing storm and the heavy rain in Guangdong.

Corresponding to the cold spring in the north, the spring in Guangdong also feels “cooler than ever.” In April of this year, the average temperature in Guangdong was 19.7°C, which was 1.9°C lower than the average, and Lechang, Renhua, and Lian in the northwest. Monthly average temperatures in 10 counties (cities), such as the state, broke or recorded the lowest historical record.

“Extreme cold events and thermal events are a reflection of the increase in climate variability and the increase in climate fluctuations in the context of global warming,” said Xiao Ziniu, director of the National Climate Center. Friends of Nature, in a report to the media on how Chinese civil society organizations participate in dealing with climate disasters, pointed out that climate change will be a severe challenge that all humankind must face for a long period of time. Li Bo, Director-General of Nature’s Friends, said in the report that the more frequent extreme weather experienced by humans is one of the effects of climate change. Although it is hard to say that an extreme weather event was caused by climate change, climate change does cause extreme weather. The frequency increases and the intensity increases.

The warning of extreme weather is becoming more and more difficult. In the context of this climate warming, the rainy days in Guangdong have decreased and the rain has increased. According to statistical data, Wen Zhiping and experts from the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau judged that precipitation in Guangdong gradually showed a decrease in the number of strong precipitation, but the intensity of precipitation increased, and the amount of concentrated rainfall in a short period of time was relatively large.

The result of this trend is that the requirements for meteorological forecasting and early warning capabilities are even higher. However, the more extreme the weather, the harder it is to give early warning. What mesmerized the meteorologists was that the heavy rain that broke Guangzhou's historical rainfall record on the evening of May 6, according to the weather chart, showed that at 20:500 hpa on the 6th, the high altitude trough had been moved to the east of Guangdong, and Guangzhou was in the northwest after the high altitude trough. Under control, the 850 hPa shear line is still far away in Hunan and Jiangxi. The weak cold air forward is still in Guangxi. It is almost impossible for such synoptic precipitation to occur.

For such short and heavy rainstorms, it is generally only possible to make an early warning from 30 minutes to 1 hour in the world. Tornadoes, hurricanes and other extremely meteorological phenomena, even in the technologically advanced United States, can only be alerted 15 minutes in advance.

The more difficult weather warnings are, the more they need to respond to emergencies in a timely manner. "The short-term warning mainly depends on satellites, radars, and automatic stations. The early-warning guns will start. All departments need to cooperate in a timely manner and immediately defend themselves," said Lin Liangxun, chief forecaster of the Provincial Meteorological Observatory.

Experts from Guangzhou Sanfang Office stated that after the warning is issued, the traffic management department shall implement transportation guidance or control in the stagnant water area, and the drainage management department shall initiate the city's emergency procedures for accumulating waste, strengthen the underground drainage pipeline, and prevent urban flooding; the governments at all levels shall promptly Transfer dangerous zone personnel and residents of dangerous houses to shelter from rain in safe places.

Having said that, there are still gaps. The news that three rainstorms caused extensive flooding of road buildings has been repeatedly reported in newspapers. It is shocking.

Exposure to all kinds of emergency failure

“Guangzhou will also experience such heavy rain,” Wen Zhiping pointed out. He believes that the government’s investment in improving weather forecasting is very important. The investment in technical talents, equipment, and other aspects is far less than that of the United States, Japan, and so on. Professor Wen Zhiping believes that more meteorological observation sites should be established to increase the amount of data collected, and quickly improve our backward numerical model. At the same time, the government should increase the allocation of public facilities and prepare for flood control in advance. It also increased the allocation of technology, personnel, and equipment, improved the dissemination of information, and citizens' knowledge and prevention awareness.

“Guangzhou should pay as much attention to internal disasters as Japan does to prevent earthquakes.” Zhou Yongzhang, director of the Earth Environment and Earth Resources Research Center at Sun Yat-sen University, stressed that “water control is a systematic project. We can't just focus on local flooding sites and ignore other weak links, and we recommend Urban construction will allow more green space and lakes to enhance urban rainwater absorption capacity."

There is also confusion for the public. Although the current meteorological information dissemination methods are diverse, they have their own advantages and disadvantages. For example, for all mobile phone users in Guangzhou, it takes four hours for all meteorological short messages to be sent out, and sometimes the rainstorm is over. TVs and Internet postings require people to watch TV and access the Internet when they need weather information. "7" Extraordinary heavy rain occurred in the middle of the night, most people were shut off by television, mobile phones were turned off, and no severe weather warning signals were received.

Therefore, the meteorological department believes that it is imperative that the public get more timely weather information. “Three storms in Guangzhou occurred in the same period. Some people suffered heavy losses in the same situation. Some people were safe and sound. The difference was in access to information.” Citizens in need should use their own convenient channels to know the information in a timely manner, and can use multiple ways to communicate with each other. To complement, ensure that critical moments come into play. Therefore, "Be sure to manage your own access to key information channels as if you were managing family property." Lin Liangxun said.