Abstract According to Handelsblatt July 8 published an article titled "Chinese concessions in punitive tariffs in the dispute," the article said German Economy Minister Rossler has agreed with Chinese Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng, China's imports from the EU will not impose polysilicon Punitively closed...
According to an article published by the German Business Daily on July 8th entitled "China's Concession in Punitive Tariff Disputes", German Economy Minister Rosler has reached an agreement with Chinese Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng that China will not punish polysilicon imported from the EU. Sexual tariffs, both sides have calmed the dispute, and Rosler has achieved success. If the Chinese impose tariffs, the main victim company will be the German polysilicon exporter Wacker Chemical Company. During the EU's double-reverse investigation of Chinese PV products, the German government has always insisted on quelling the situation and advocated solving the problem through negotiations. According to the report, the background of the polysilicon dispute is that the EU may investigate the possible price dumping of PV products exported from China. As a countermeasure, the Chinese government immediately launched an anti-dumping investigation on polysilicon imported from the EU, which is one of the most important raw materials for producing photovoltaic panels.
Four companies can't support or cause China's polysilicon industry not to protect
Although the photovoltaic industry crisis that has continued for nearly two years has shown signs of recovery in the first half of the year, the polysilicon link in the “hardest hit†of the crisis is still on the line. According to the latest research report of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch, only 4 of the 43 polysilicon enterprises in China are barely maintained, and the capacity utilization rate of these 4 companies has dropped to less than 30%. Half a year also continued to decline.
The Silicon Industry Branch expects that polysilicon prices will remain low in the second half of the year and below the cost level of the company. If the external polysilicon "double-reverse" counter-measures are not introduced, the imported polysilicon, which accounts for nearly 80% of the domestic market share, will further impact the domestic market at a low price. In addition, there is no obvious improvement in market demand in the short term, bank credit can be avoided, and the domestic polysilicon industry may face the risk of being completely annihilated.
Reproduction hope
According to the research report of the Silicon Industry Branch, the domestic polysilicon production in the first half of the year was 28,000 tons, down 23.6% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the spot price of polysilicon remained at a level of 130,000 yuan/ton, down 4.2% year-on-year, continuing the decline since last year.
It is worth noting that among the domestic production of 28,000 tons, the production of Suzhongeng, a subsidiary of Poly GCL, exceeded 22,000 tons, accounting for 78.6% of the total domestic output. This means that most companies have no supply in the first half of the year.
According to the research report, 43 polysilicon enterprises have been put into production, and only 6 of them are still in production. If you consider a company that has been shut down, the capacity utilization rate of the entire domestic industry is less than 30%.
Relevant persons of the Silicon Industry Branch pointed out that due to the expected impact of China's proposed polysilicon "double anti-" in the three countries of Europe, the United States and South Korea, many enterprises originally planned to start production, but the "double opposition" expectations have been postponed repeatedly, which has seriously affected the confidence of enterprises. The start-up plan has been stranded.
“In the polysilicon enterprises that have been discontinued for a long time, the production system is prone to rust, the technical and financial difficulties of restoring production are greatly increased, and the production system may even be in danger of being scrapped.†The above-mentioned person said that if there is no clear favorable policy in the second half of the year, the hopes of these enterprises’ resumption of production still remain. Hey.
Industry life hanging a line
According to the research report of the Silicon Industry Branch, only four of the most competitive companies are still maintaining production at low load, but they have been operating at large losses for more than one year. This situation is difficult to sustain. Once these four companies can't support it, China's polysilicon industry will not be guaranteed.
In fact, this risk is increasing. The above-mentioned person from the Silicon Industry Branch pointed out that for the polysilicon industry, the most anticipated positive expectations are twofold: one is to effectively prevent foreign dumping and obtain a chance to breathe; the second is to accelerate the application of the domestic market and solve the imbalance of market structure. He said that the double-counter case against the US, South Korea and the EU polysilicon has been exhausted. It was originally planned to be cut off on February 20, 2013. Although the investigation was completed, it was still unpredictable when it was introduced.
He further stated that in the first half of this year, foreign polysilicon accounted for 75% of China's market share, and the trend of foreign investors to further expand their market share in China by low-cost dumping has intensified. If the polysilicon double-reverse ruling cannot be introduced, it will be difficult for domestic polysilicon enterprises to get a chance to breathe. The remaining companies will not be able to sustain production for a long time. In addition, the state has introduced a number of policies to support photovoltaic applications, but implementation is difficult, seriously affecting the investment return cycle of enterprises, greatly reducing the effect of policy promotion.
The above-mentioned people said that banks are now avoiding polysilicon companies. "The old loan is not close to debt collection, and the new credit is not expected." Polysilicon is a capital-intensive industry, and it is difficult to support without the support of banks. Even if prices rise above the cost of some companies, it is difficult to recover if the companies after long-term shutdowns lack liquidity. "Domestic polysilicon enterprises involve more than 100 billion yuan in investment in the industry, and nearly 30,000 people are employed. If the industry is paralyzed, direct economic losses and social problems will be enormous."
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