The latest news from the EU, the high probability will be better than the Chinese photovoltaics that are being baptized by the "531 New Deal", and support the A-share PV sector in the second half of the year.
A few days ago, the relevant news said that the European Commission rejected the European Union's PV dual-research survey applicant EU ProSun (European Photovoltaic Manufacturers Association) application for launching a sunset review.
On August 26, Wu Bixuan, a senior partner of China's polysilicon “double-reverse†contractor and Haihua Yongtai Law Firm, confirmed the news to the “Securities Daily†reporter. “Although no official official documents have been released, according to the current situation. It has been basically confirmed that after September 3, 2018, the EU will remove the 'double anti-tax' and 'price commitment' (the minimum import price mechanism of the EU, namely the MIP mechanism) for the Chinese PV products. Trade barriers."
A PV industry insider who did not want to be named also analyzed this with the Securities Daily reporter. "If the EU's 'double anti-tax' and 'price commitment' are finally removed, China and Europe will resume the free trade of photovoltaic products. The benefits are roughly threefold: First, the EU market will generate greater demand for cheaper and better Chinese PV products; second, the EU's support for PV and the elimination of trade barriers will have a demonstration effect on a global scale. Third, effectively boost the confidence of the capital market in the future development of the photovoltaic industry."
Starting with "double opposition"
Central Europe's photovoltaic trade slips down
Europe used to be the world's largest PV application market (30% of the world's new installed capacity) and the most important market for PV in China. “At the highest, it accounts for 90% of China's PV product exports and prices. In 2011, China still has nearly 70% of its PV products exported to Europe. The above-mentioned PV industry insiders believe that “at the time of its birth, China's PV industry was almost tailor-made for the European market.â€
Despite the rise of more and more emerging markets for photovoltaic applications, and the rapid expansion of domestic demand since 2013, the European market accounts for a proportion of China's PV exports, which is bound to show a gradual decline. However, the reason for the real decline in the export of China's photovoltaic products to Europe is still mainly due to the trade barriers that the EU started in 2012 to China's photovoltaics.
According to relevant reports, on July 24, 2012, European PV manufacturers filed an “anti-dumping†investigation application for PV products in China. In September 2012, the EU released “initiatives to launch photovoltaic products for China (crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules, Battery and silicon) the 'anti-dumping' investigation.
Fortunately, with the efforts of all parties, in July 2013, China and the EU reached a price commitment on China's trade dispute over PV products in Europe. Before 2015, the lower price limit of China's PV products exported to Europe will be set at 0.56 Euro/W. (The official has not announced the specific lower limit of the price commitment, the data is rumored by the industry), and the total amount is limited to 7GW/year.
At that time, the achievement of this price commitment has undoubtedly greatly improved the dilemma of China's photovoltaics. It is believed that, at least in 2013, China's PV exports to Europe will not decay too much.
But in fact, for a number of reasons, especially China and the EU reached a price agreement on PV product disputes, in November 2013, China's exports to Europe accounted for less than 30% of the total exports from the previous 70%. By 2014, Europe and the United States together accounted for only 30% of China's PV exports.
What is even more worrying to the industry is that the restrictive policy will be released from 2013 to 2015, and will gradually release the negative impact on China's photovoltaics, especially polycrystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic products, over time: if photovoltaic products are produced The cost reduction has led to a decrease in the price of other competitors' PV products, and China's PV products that have to comply with the lower limit of 0.57 Euro/W will gradually lose their competitiveness in the European market.
European PV installed capacity
Or will return to the fast lane
In May 2015, EU ProSun submitted a complaint to the European Commission, accusing China's PV companies of rushing through third places such as Malaysia to sell their products to Europe to avoid tariffs. The original intention is mainly to provoke the EU to conduct "anti-circumvention investigations" on crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules and key components originating in China; and the deeper level of intention may be related to the "anti-circumvention investigation". The material is an excuse for the European Commission to make a decision to extend the “price commitments that should have expired in December 2015 between China and Europeâ€.
Relevant legal persons told the "Securities Daily" reporter that before the expiration of the "price commitment" of China and the EU, the European Commission will review the implementation (also known as "sunset review"), thereby determining the "price commitment". It is extended or revoked.
Finally, on May 5, 2015, at the request of EU ProSun, the EU decided to conduct an “anti-circumvention investigation†on crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules and key components originating in China, and the price commitment execution was postponed for the first time. At the end of February 2017, the European Commission released a message saying that it hoped to extend the implementation of the price commitments for photovoltaic products in China for 18 months, and gradually phased out the measures, but this also allowed the price commitments to be renewed.
On September 3, 2018, the Sino-European PV price commitment will expire again. “In fact, the EU is on the grounds that the application submitted by EU ProSun is not qualified, and the sunset review is avoided.†A legal person told Securities Daily. The reporter revealed, "But in fact, everyone understands that the EU's willingness is to voluntarily give up trade barriers such as price commitments."
Nowadays, it is meaningless to discuss the flaws in the Sino-European trade dispute. The lesson learned by the Chinese industry is that if you want to fight for trade fairness, you must have enough "chips" in the negotiations.
In addition, trade barriers have brought irreparable losses to both China and the EU. In addition to the cliff-like decline in China's PV products exports to Europe, the growth of the European PV application market has weakened from about 2013-2014. A lot. For example, in 2017, supported by strong growth in Turkey, the newly added PV installed capacity in Europe barely reached 8.61 GW, an increase of 28% over the previous year.
However, with the strong expectation of China's PV trade barriers and the increasing willingness of EU countries to develop photovoltaic-based renewable energy, institutions have made predictions that the new installed capacity of PV in Europe will be 2017 by 2017. About 9GW, increased to about 11GW in 2018.
In any case, this will have a major positive impact on China's PV, which has been affected by the “531 New Deal†and whose domestic market has been squeezed.
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