Abstract In 2013, with the slow recovery of the international economy and the slowdown of domestic economic growth, China's oil and chemical industry was generally stable, production growth accelerated, and overall efficiency improvement improved. Transformation and upgrading steadily advanced, but downward pressure also Larger, some problems and contradictions...
In 2013, with the slow recovery of the international economy and the slowdown of domestic economic growth, China's oil and chemical industry was generally stable, production growth accelerated, and overall efficiency improvement improved. The transformation and upgrading steadily advanced, but the downward pressure was also higher. Big, some problems and contradictions are highlighted. I. Analysis of industry operations in 2013
(1) The overall economic operation is stable
From January to December, the added value of the petroleum and chemical industry increased by 8% year-on-year, accounting for 13.23% of the national industrial added value, of which the chemical industry added value of 12.2%; the main business income was 12.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.94%, of which chemical 8.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.88%; profit of 840.27 billion yuan, an increase of 5.64%, of which 433.99 billion yuan, an increase of 12.23%, compared with 0.66% and 4% in the same period last year; 3,225 loss-making enterprises, down 0.43% The loss amount decreased by 12.53%.
(II) Steady growth in product output
From January to December, crude oil output was 208 million tons, up 1.65% year-on-year; crude oil processing volume was 479 million tons, up 3.31%; natural gas was 112.94 billion cubic meters, up 9.1%; caustic soda was 28.542 million tons, up 6.6%; soda ash was 24.293 million tons , growth of 0.6%; calcium carbide 22.324 million tons, an increase of 16.2%; ethylene 16.22 million tons, an increase of 8.5%; fertilizers of 71.536 million tons, an increase of 4.9%, of which nitrogen and potassium fertilizers increased by 5.9% and 16.3%, respectively, phosphorus fertilizer decreased by 1.4%; pesticides 3.19 million tons, an increase of 1.6%; primary form plastics 58.367 million tons, an increase of 11%; synthetic fiber monomer 230.55 million tons, an increase of 4.7%; tire casing production of 965 million, an increase of 7.2%.
(3) Overall improvement in chemical efficiency
From January to December, the profit of basic chemical raw materials was 94.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, an increase of 13.8 percentage points over the first half of the year. Among them, inorganic acids, inorganic alkalis and inorganic salts gradually stabilized, and the year-on-year growth rate increased by 21.2 and 88.8 respectively over the first half of the year. 20.6 percentage points. Organic chemical raw materials, pesticides, rubber products and special chemicals continued to grow rapidly, with profits of 56.89 billion yuan, 22.93 billion yuan, 59.31 billion yuan and 112.01 billion yuan, respectively, up 26.8%, 30.8%, 21.9% and 16.2%. . However, fertilizer manufacturing continued to be in a downturn, with a profit of 38.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.2%. Among them, nitrogen, phosphate and potash decreased by 51.4%, 30.9% and 46.4% respectively.
(4) Import and export of the industry is “steady and increasingâ€
From January to December, the total import and export volume of the petroleum and chemical industry was 641.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and the trade deficit was 289.89 billion US dollars, down 0.15%. The entire industry imported 465.65 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.7%. Imported crude oil was 282 million tons, an increase of 4.1%, and external dependence was 57.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point over last year. The export of the whole industry was 175.76 billion US dollars, an increase of 5%, of which the chemical industry exported 145.84 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.2%. The export value of rubber products was 47.89 billion US dollars, up 9.2%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points over the previous year, accounting for 27.2% of the whole industry. Exports of pesticides and synthetic fiber polymers increased by 31% and 27.3% respectively. Exports of chemical fertilizers (physical quantities) increased by 7%, and exports fell by 14.1%.
(V) Investment structure continues to be optimized
From January to December, the petroleum and chemical industry completed a fixed asset investment of 2.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. There were 11,720 new projects in the industry, an increase of 3%, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The chemical industry completed 1.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.6%, the lowest value in the near future. Fixed assets investment in synthetic resin, coating (pigment), chemical pesticides and organic chemical raw materials increased by 29.7%, 28.2%, 27.3% and 27.1%, respectively, higher than the industry average. Investment in some excess industries such as inorganic acids, inorganic bases and phosphate fertilizers continued to fall.
(6) Further improvement in the structure of economic growth
The proportion of resource products continued to decline, and technical products continued to rise. From January to December, the main business income of the chemical industry accounted for 62.7% of the total industry, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, a record high; the proportion of organic chemical raw materials, rubber products and specialty chemicals accounted for 13.1% of the chemical industry, respectively. 13.7% and 25.8%, respectively, increased by 2.8, 1.1 and 1 percentage point year on year, while the proportion of inorganic chemical raw materials and fertilizer decreased by 0.94 and 3.9 percentage points respectively. In addition, key technologies and equipment such as trans-isoamyl rubber, methanol-based aromatic hydrocarbons, and large-scale coal gasifiers have made breakthroughs. The growth rate of advanced polymer materials, high-end composite materials and functional materials is obviously faster than the industry average.
Second, the outstanding problems facing
(1) The contradiction of overcapacity in some industries is still outstanding
In some traditional chemical industries, the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent. The capacity utilization rate has remained low for a long time, the exit mechanism of backward production capacity is not perfect, the market competition is fierce, and prices continue to be sluggish. According to industry association statistics, in 2013, the operating rates of methanol, polyvinyl chloride, caustic soda and urea were about 60%, 65%, 75% and 80%. The prices of methanol and polyvinyl chloride were low for a long time, and the prices of caustic soda (salt alkali) and urea decreased by 18.4% and 13.4% respectively. In addition, some chemical new materials and fine chemicals have achieved a new overheating trend after the breakthrough in technology.
(2) High operating costs of economic operation
Since 2013, although the prices of some raw materials such as coal are relatively low, the costs of labor, electricity, transportation, and environmental protection have risen, resulting in high overall cost of the industry. From January to December, the main business cost of the petroleum and chemical industry was 10.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, which was 0.93 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the main business income. The main operating cost per 100 yuan of the chemical industry is 87 yuan, an increase of 0.41 yuan over the same period of the previous year, which is 1.73 yuan higher than the national industrial enterprises above designated size. The cumulative growth rate of profits of the whole industry and the chemical industry was 3.3 and 0.6 percentage points lower than the main business income respectively.
(3) Insufficient self-sufficiency of some high-end products
High-end chemical new materials and special new-type special chemicals are still in the stage of “research and development, less applicationâ€, and the improvement of self-sufficiency requires a long process. For example, in the field of high-performance fiber, GQ3522 and GQ4522 carbon fiber have been industrialized, but due to imperfect process technology, the production cost of the product is high, and high-strength medium-mode and high-mode carbon fiber are in urgent need of high-level industrialization. In the field of engineering plastics, although the 10,000-ton technology independently developed by polycarbonate has achieved breakthroughs, it is still difficult to compete with foreign leading companies in terms of production cost and product quality, such as polyimide, polyarylate, perfluororubber, etc. Insufficient investment, product development and application lag.
(4) The situation of safety and environmental protection is grim
In 2013, the safety and environmental protection situation of the petroleum and chemical industry was severe. With the increase of public awareness of environmental protection and safety, project construction has become the focus of public opinion, social sensitivity has improved, and some local people have resisted the development of the chemical industry, which has become an impact on the development of the industry. One of the important factors. Many hazardous chemicals companies that were originally far away from the urban area have been surrounded by residential areas and commercial areas and need to be relocated to specialized chemical parks. However, there are many problems in the chemical parks, such as excessive quantity, unreasonable layout, similar industrial structure and homogenization of products. The planning, construction and management levels of the park are uneven. Some enterprises in the park are small in scale, weak in strength and low in grade. The level of organization and management of the park is not high, and there are potential risks.
Third, the outlook for 2014
From an international perspective, most institutions predict that the global economic growth rate will be faster in 2013 than in 2013, and the economic operation will be stabilized. From the domestic perspective, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee proposed comprehensive and deepening reforms, and the role of market allocation of resources will become more prominent. The development of new urbanization, agricultural modernization, environmental protection industries and strategic emerging industries will provide a broader supply for the petroleum and chemical industries. Market and new growth points. However, the deep-seated contradictions facing the development of the industry have not been fully resolved, and there are still risks and downward risks in economic growth. The production capacity of some industries is still outstanding, the cost will still be high, the competition in the low-end market is fierce, the innovation ability can not meet the requirements of the development of the industry, the profitability needs to be further improved, the safety and environmental protection situation is still grim, and various energy conservation and environmental protection policies are frequent. The development of the industry has brought tremendous pressure.
It is expected that the demand for major products in the petroleum and chemical industry will maintain moderate growth in 2014, and the overall price level will remain flat or rebound, and the overall economic operation of the industry will remain relatively stable.
Fourth, the key work in 2014
In 2014, in accordance with the spirit of the Second and Third Plenary Sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, the petrochemical industry management will further transform its functions, play a decisive role in market allocation of resources, innovate industry management methods, and improve the industry management system. Give full play to the role of planning, policies and standards in guiding and standardizing the healthy development of the industry under the conditions of a socialist market economy, promote the transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical industry, and achieve the overall goal of “steady progressâ€.
The first is to strengthen the formulation of plans, policies and standards, and regulate the development of the industry. On the basis of the mid-term evaluation of the “12th Five-Year Plan†of petrochemical industry, the development of the “13th Five-Year†petrochemical industry will be studied. Do a good job in the productivity layout and policy research of important products such as p-xylene (PX) and phenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI), promote the license management of chromium compound production and construction, carry out research on the standard conditions of tires and fluorine chemicals, and accelerate the improvement of the petrochemical industry standard system. Promote the coordination of trade policies and industrial policies.
The second is to do a good job in the management of the chemical fertilizer and pesticide industry to ensure agricultural demand. Advance the implementation of the announcement on the acceptance of synthetic ammonia and ammonium phosphate industry, actively carry out research on overcapacity in the nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer industries, and promote the marketization process of the fertilizer industry. Innovate the administrative licensing management method of the pesticide industry, guide the merger and reorganization of enterprises, further promote the elimination of highly toxic pesticides, and carry out the supervision of agricultural materials. Maintain a stable operation of the agrochemical industry and ensure the demand for fertilization for agricultural production.
The third is to promote the development of new chemical materials and enhance the vitality of industrial development. Implement the “Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of Carbon Fiber Industryâ€, accelerate the construction of carbon fiber industry organizations, and promote the application of carbon fiber and its composite materials in important fields such as aerospace, transmission cables, wind power, and automobiles. Accelerate the development of high-end petrochemical products such as high-performance membrane materials, high-grade lead-free paints, and chlorinated titanium dioxide.
The fourth is to strengthen the management of chemicals to ensure the safe development of the industry. Continue to promote the implementation of the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (GHS), set up a national basic database of chemical hazard characteristics, strengthen the safety of hazardous chemicals, disclose environmental information, make full use of domestic and international resources, and conduct publicity and education. In accordance with the requirements of the “Regulations on the Safety Management of Dangerous Chemicalsâ€, we will do a good job in the layout and planning of hazardous chemicals, standardize the construction of chemical parks, and ensure the safe and stable development of the petrochemical industry.
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