China's strategic oil reserve will increase to about 85 million tons in 2020

International crude oil futures prices have continued to rise in recent days, and broke through 90 US dollars per barrel, setting a new high since October 2008. According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the oil price in the international market fluctuated in 2010, and the annual average price rose by about 28% compared with 2009. The high international oil price and the recent “oil shortage” in China have made people “somewhat worried” about the construction of China’s strategic oil reserve base.

China's petroleum strategic reserve will reach 90 days of import in 2020. Since the autumn and winter in 2010, there have been serious shortages of diesel supply in many parts of eastern and southern China, but it has quickly eased. Analysts believe that the National Petroleum Reserve Center, established in December 2007, plays a crucial role in the shortage of similar refined oil supplies.

It is understood that the discussion on establishing a strategic oil reserve in China began in 2000. In that year, China’s net crude oil imports were 60 million tons, and its dependence on foreign countries was less than 30%. But at that time 80% of imported crude oil came from the Middle East, and imports depended on a single and long sea route. Based on the consideration of avoiding the shortage of crude oil supply or the risk of interruption, the NDRC, the Ministry of Communications, the shipping company, and the oil company formed a discussion group to study the diversification of oil sources and the establishment of oil reserves.

After the oil price in 2003 rose, China’s crude oil imports also rose sharply. 80 million tons in 2003 and 120 million tons in 2004. In 2007, it increased to 150 million tons. In 2009, it exceeded 200 million tons for the first time. The dependence on oil has exceeded 50% for many years. Establishing oil reserves and ensuring national energy security has become More and more urgent.

On December 18, 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that China National Petroleum Reserve Center was formally established to strengthen China's strategic oil reserve construction and improve the oil reserve management system. The decision-making layer decided to complete the construction of the oil reserve base in three phases in 15 years.

The first four strategic oil reserve bases invested by the government in China are located in Zhoushan and Zhenhai, Zhejiang, Dalian, Liaoning and Huangdao, Shandong. They were fully utilized in 2008. The total reserve is 16.4 million cubic meters, about 14 million tons (according to the conversion statistics of BP statistics, 1 cubic meter of crude oil is equivalent to 0.8581 tons), equivalent to China's more than 10 days of crude oil imports, plus domestic 21-day import volume of commercial With the oil reserve capacity, China's total oil reserve capacity can reach 30 days of crude oil imports.

The first phase of the oil reserve base is mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal cities, and in the second phase of the plan, the inland areas will play an important role.

At the end of September last year, the Xinjiang Dushanzi National Petroleum Reserve Project started, marking the full-scale construction of the second phase of the oil reserve base. According to the plan, China will open eight second-phase strategic oil reserve bases, including Zhanjiang and Huizhou in Guangdong, Lanzhou in Gansu, Jintan in Jiangsu, Jinzhou in Liaoning and Tianjin.

It is reported that the third phase of China's strategic oil reserve is under planning. All provinces and cities across the country are competing for the approval of the reserve base. Chongqing Wanzhou District, Hainan Province and Caofeidian of Hebei Province all hope to be selected as the third phase of oil storage. base.

It is understood that once the entire project is completed in 2020, China’s total reserve will reach a net oil import of about 100 days, and the national oil reserve capacity will be raised to about 85 million tons, equivalent to 90 days of net oil imports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) sets the “marking line” for strategic oil reserve capacity.

Oil reserves successfully implemented "low-suction strategy"

On December 28, 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission said that from January to November 2010, China had imported 218 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%. It is estimated that the annual dependence on oil is about 55%.

In recent years, China's crude oil import data shows that after the financial crisis, China's crude oil imports have recovered significantly in April 2009. Since the second quarter, crude oil imports have remained at a high level. In December of that year, the monthly import history reached a record high of 21.26 million tons.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 22.27 million tons of crude oil in June last year, an increase of 34% over the same period in 2009. In the first half of last year, the monthly import volume of crude oil was basically maintained at around 20 million tons. The continued volume of crude oil imports has led to widespread market speculation that the government is increasing its strategic oil reserves.

In fact, China's crude oil strategic reserve is regarded as top secret content and is not announced. The only data related to inventory in China comes from the number of oil inventories issued by Xinhua News Agency at the end of each month. This figure does not cover the national strategic reserve, mainly based on the inventory of China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec, and covers some social stocks.

According to insiders of PetroChina, PetroChina has a 10-member information screening and oil price forecasting group. This research department is rarely known to the outside world. It is responsible for providing crude oil and refined oil price forecasts and market decisions for PetroChina, the world's top five oil giants.

These decision-making information is strictly confidential, and the short-term and medium-term market behavior of PetroChina is determined according to the different time points of monthly, quarterly and annual reports. And almost every oil company in China has a similar "think tank" department.

In fact, as early as August 11, 2007, the first batch of China's strategic oil reserve bases began to fill oil. On the same day, a tanker loaded with 140,000 tons of Russian Ural crude oil was berthed at Ningbo's counties terminal, and oil was injected into the strategic oil reserve of Zhenhai Base, 18 kilometers away. This is the first batch of oil officially injected into the Zhenhai base. Since August of that year, 3 million barrels of Russian Ural crude oil have been injected into the Zhenhai base, which is close to 10% of the total design of the base. This move also means that China's strategic oil reserve system achieves zero breakthrough.

The Zhenhai Petroleum Reserve Base plans to build 52 oil storage tanks, each of which will store 100,000 cubic meters of oil and be designed to store 5.2 million cubic meters of oil and 32.7 million barrels. Based on the average of China's crude oil consumption of 7.01 million barrels per day in the first five months of 2007, the oil storage in Zhenhai Base is equivalent to about 4.6 days of consumption in the country.

The staff of Sinopec Zhenhai Petroleum Reserve Base said that the first batch of crude oil reserves of the oil reserve base had been completed before 2008, and its oil price was at US$50/barrel, and then the oil price rose to US$147/barrel.

After October 2009, the world economy has bottomed out and began to recover slowly. One of its main signs is that international oil prices have begun to stabilize and rebound, and the price of oil per barrel has exceeded the $75 mark.

"Before the oil price rose, all the oil reserves that have been built have been stored." Insiders involved in the oil reserve revealed. It is understood that the lowest price of crude oil in 2009 is 33 US dollars / barrel before and after the Spring Festival. Insiders revealed: "Even during the Spring Festival, the three major oil groups did not stop importing crude oil."

It is understood that in 2009, China's national strategic oil reserve construction is progressing smoothly. The first phase of the national strategic oil reserve was completed at a cost of 58 US dollars per barrel. Its reserves are equivalent to the domestic oil consumption level in 2008, equivalent to 13 to 14 days of oil consumption in the country.

At the same time, the second phase of the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been planned, with a total storage capacity of 26.8 million cubic meters. Some projects have been completed or are under construction in 2009. Significant progress has also been made in the construction of corporate commercial oil reserves. Domestic oil companies have established about 300 million barrels of commercial crude oil reserves, of which Sinopec and PetroChina account for 50% and 40% respectively.

At that time, China's oil storage costs averaged $58 per barrel, while current international oil prices have exceeded $90 per barrel.

Accelerating the construction of the oil reserve system "can not be delayed"

According to reports, the oil reserve is a systematic construction process involving factors such as total amount, regional distribution, and ownership distribution. Now, China’s oil reserve systemization has really begun, essentially building government reserves and enterprise reserves and strategic reserves. Integrated oil reserve system combined with voluntary reserves.

Although some of China's first oil reserve bases have been completed, the basic conditions for starting strategic oil reserves are guaranteed from hardware such as oil storage facilities. However, there is still a series of work to be done to build a petroleum reserve system, such as the formulation of laws and regulations related to petroleum strategic reserves, the establishment of reserve operation management institutions, the source of reserve oil products, the source of reserve funds, the location of new reserve bases, and the compliance with China. Further research is needed on the scale of reserves of demand.

Industry experts stressed that as China's oil reserve system has just started, it is difficult for us to guarantee oil supply and stabilize oil products in a short period of time when faced with large-scale “oil shortage” that frequently appears in the domestic and international markets due to imbalance between supply and demand and insufficient market supply. Market Order. Therefore, no matter from the domestic market or the external environment, it is imperative to accelerate the construction of China's oil reserve system.

It is understood that the "Petroleum Reserve Law" that was implemented in Japan in 1975 opened the prelude to its strategic resource reserve system. Since Japan launched the national oil reserve system after the oil crisis in 1978, Japan’s national oil reserves have risen rapidly from 7 days in the year to 102 days in 2008.

Today, the Japanese oil reserve is managed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, with the state as the mainstay and the people as the supplement. According to the Petroleum Reserve Law, the oil stored by the state and enterprises must be consumed for at least 90 days and 60 days respectively. As of the end of last year, Japan’s oil reserves were about 600 million barrels, and government and private reserves were above the standard line.

In fact, with reference to the experience of Europe, the United States and Japan, the China Petroleum Reserve System is designed to be four levels, namely the national strategic oil reserve, the local government oil reserve, the state-owned oil company commercial reserve and other small and medium-sized company oil reserves.

It is understood that the choice of China's oil reserve base needs to have three basic conditions: First, it is close to the deep water port, railway line, highway network, and has superior transportation and logistics conditions; second, it is close to large refineries and reserve bases at critical moments. The refined oil can be processed on site for the needs; the third is close to the consumer market, especially in the first phase of construction in China, four bases are distributed in areas with high oil consumption in the southeast coast.

Of course, the choice of the oil reserve base also needs to consider the geographical location factor of China's oil importing countries. The site selection of the second phase project in Xinjiang is to consider this point.

In order to make full use of social resources and increase the storage capacity of oil reserves, in August 2010, the National Petroleum Reserve Center held a bidding for the use of social storage capacity to store oil reserves. The total capacity of the six winning enterprises was 1.5 million cubic meters, equivalent to Dalian. Half of the total storage capacity of the oil reserve base.

The data shows that among the total oil reserves of 230 million tons of private oil enterprises in China, the fully utilized inventory capacity is only several hundred thousand tons, less than one percent of the total, and the remaining inventory capacity is idle. Annual maintenance and management require high costs.

Relevant persons from the National Development and Reform Commission said that the bidding is expected to create a win-win situation, which will not only enhance the national oil reserve capacity, but also broaden the development space of private oil companies.
 

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