China's iron ore imports will be more diversified in the next 10 years

"In the next 10 to 15 years, China's import of iron ore will not be fundamentally changed, but it will be more diversified." Ma Jianming, a researcher at the Ministry of Land and Resources Information Center, has analyzed the world's iron ore since 2000. After the pattern and its trade changes and causes, the above viewpoint was put forward.

Major changes in the world steel pattern

"China has become the main force in the growth of world steel production." Ma Jianming said, "Since the 21st century, there have been new major changes in the development of the world steel industry, with a focus shifting from developed countries to developing countries, the United States, Britain, France, Japan, Germany and other countries. Steel production has shown a downward trend during this period, while developing countries and new industrialized countries have become the mainstay of steel growth."

From 2000 to 2012, world steel production increased from 850 million tons to 1.52 billion tons, an increase of 78.8%, with an average annual growth rate of 5.0%. In the first half of 2013, global steel production was 780 million tons, of which 390 million tons were produced in China, accounting for 49.4%. Ma Jianming believes that this development is "extraordinary." He pointed out that from 129 million tons in 2000 to 720 million tons in 2012, China's crude steel output increased by 4.6 times in 12 years, with an average annual growth of 15.4%, showing a trend of increasing volume. During this period, the fast-growing Chinese steel industry accounted for 88% of the world's growth, and China has become the world's largest steel producer. "The rapid development of China's steel industry has become an important force driving the demand for iron ore in the world." Ma Jianming said.

Iron ore pattern has not produced a fundamental change

The development of the steel industry has brought huge demand for iron ore. From 959 million tons in 2000 to 2.93 billion tons (original ore) in 2011, iron ore production increased by more than 200%. At the same time, however, the world's top ten iron ore production is still concentrated in a few countries, 17 countries with iron ore exceeding 10 million tons, the top 10 producing countries are Australia, Brazil, China, India, Russia, Ukraine. , South Africa, the United States, Canada and Sweden. "The pattern of concentrated iron ore production in the world has not changed." Ma Jianming said.
Ma Jianming judged that from 2013 to 2015, 600 million tons of iron ore production capacity will be put into production worldwide. 80% of new capacity will come from Australia, Brazil and India, including 49% in Australia, 28% in Brazil and 6% in India. 4% of Canada, China, South Africa, Chile, Ukraine, Guinea each account for 2%, Russia and Kazakhstan each account for 1%.

China's iron ore imports are diversified

Corresponding to the iron ore pattern, since the beginning of the 21st century, there has been no major change in the pattern of the world iron ore trade exporting countries. In 2000, the total iron ore exports of Australia, Brazil, India, South Africa and Canada accounted for 80.2% of the world's iron ore trade volume that year. In 2012, Australia, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Ukraine exported a total of 968 million tons of iron ore, accounting for 82.7% of the world's iron ore trade.

Ma Jianming believes that since 2000, there has been no significant change in the pattern of the world's iron ore trade exporting countries, and the degree of concentration of the world's iron ore exports has increased. However, in contrast, the concentration of iron ore import sources in China has dropped significantly. In 2000, China imported 58.57 million tons of iron ore from Australia, Brazil and India, the three major iron ore producers, accounting for 84.0% of the iron ore imports of the year. In 2012, imports of iron ore from Australia, Brazil and South Africa totaled 560 million tons, accounting for 74.8% of China's iron ore imports of 743 million tons.

"Since entering the 21st century, China's iron ore import diversification has made some progress." Ma Jianming believes. He said that in the first half of 2013, iron ore imports were 384 million tons, of which 284 million tons were imported from Australia, Brazil and South Africa, accounting for 73.8% of total imports.

For China's iron ore import trend, Ma Jianming said that in the next 10 to 15 years, China's steel production will be at the peak stage, and the demand for iron ore in China's steel industry development will remain stable, but imports will be more diversified.

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